On the Political Winds

To figure out how major news events, policy initiatives and unexpected disruptions are going to shake out politically usually takes months. At this point, we can say with some confidence that the Republican Party’s embrace of new abortion restrictions in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v. Wade is not going over very well. While these moves may be popular with the party’s base, including evangelical Christians and social extremists, they are not sitting well with moderates, Independents and liberals. In fact, they are not playing well at all with the great majority of voters, as we’ve recently seen in the deep-red state of Kansas. So politically speaking, this issue seems to be a harbinger of bad news for Republicans. Abortion bans probably stoke many non-partisan Americans’ fears that the party has simply grown too extreme and too Trump-like to be trusted at this point. This view is moderated by the fact that each race is an individual contest in specific Congressional districts more than a national referendum, so Republicans will probably still do well enough to regain control of the House this fall, though probably not the Senate — both according to the latest assessments from 538. The much more recent policy controversy around Biden’s proposal to provide relief for college loan debts, with up to $10,000 forgiveness for people earning under $125,000 a year, and up to $20,000 of relief for recipients of Pell grants, who are usually among the neediest of students. It’s simply too soon to speculate how this will play out in November. Ted Cruz thinks it will help Democrats and I would have agreed had Biden taken action earlier in his term, when younger voters might have gotten energized in support of Democratic candidates as a result. But at this point, young voters largely seem to have retreated to their normal state in midyear elections, which is checked-out apathy. We’ll see over the coming months whether that changes. Also, concerns over inflation are widespread and that is never a good thing for incumbents, so that is a strike against Democrats. Gas prices have come down substantially but food and other supplies still are increasing in cost at a rate that alarms many families. Finally, Trump’s legal troubles may be coming to a head in several different jurisdictions and that presents a political wild card no one knows how to evaluate. If he is indicted, as seems probable now, how will voters react? Will there be more January 6th-type riots and/or will Trump finally start to lose his hold on the GOP base? There’s a lot on the line this November, including what some of the most thoughtful political analysts believe is the future of our democracy. That is because election deniers are now in office or soon may be in a number of swing states. Since they are by definition believers in conspiracy theories instead of facts, election deniers are the worst possible people to be in charge of counting votes. That is, if you care about democracy. LATEST LINKS: UN agency to inspect Ukraine nuclear plant amid safety fears (AP) A team from the U.N. nuclear watchdog headed to Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, as Russia and Ukraine traded accusations of shelling in its vicinity, fueling fears of a radiation disaster. Captured by Russian troops in March but run by Ukrainian staff, Zaporizhzhia has been a hotspot in a conflict that has settled into a war of attrition. (Reuters) Ukrainian forces begin 'shaping' battlefield for counteroffensive, senior US officials say (CNN) Ukraine On Edge As Shelling Near Europe’s Largest Nuclear Power Plant Continues (NBC) 'Slower burn.' 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