Just under a year ago, Russia had massed some 190,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and appeared to be on the verge of invading the country. Putin’s generals had reportedly assured him that victory would only take a few days.
I doubted that and wrote the following essay, entitled “The Trap.”
A few days later, Russia invaded. A year later, the war continues.
***
“The Trap” (2.19.22)
As Europe teeters toward war, a war we all hope doesn't escalate into World War III, history reminds us that most great powers get their way until the moment they suddenly don’t and then the situation deteriorates quickly.
Russia is a case in point. Its former empire — the Soviet Union — began crumbling when it lost the war in Afghanistan. The loss of control over many satellites of the old Soviet Union in both Europe and Asia followed, leaving the angry remnant of empire that is Vladimir Putin’s shrunken state of today.
All through history, after the imperial troops depart, assuming a new empire doesn’t ride right in, the newly freed countries struggle to establish some sort of independent status, as Afghanistan is doing right now.
Empires, dictators, strongmen always seem invincible — until they aren’t. That is the way of history. Although I’ve read every analysis of the Ukraine situation I can find, none have said what I believe will prove true: That if Putin goes through with this ill-conceived invasion, it will be the beginning of the end of his hold on power.
Like most autocrats who have been in place too long, Putin has developed an exaggerated sense of his personal power and may be dramatically underestimating his vulnerability. Therefore it appears he is about to walk into a trap. While restoring the Soviet empire might seem like an achievable goal to him, in reality that is not going to be tolerated by the West, let alone the rest of the world, including (in the end) China.
Therefore he proceeds at his own great peril.
LINKS:
Rescuers pull seven survivors from ruins eight days after Turkey quake (Reuters)
Videos show Turkey's Erdogan boasted letting builders avoid earthquake codes (NPR)
Meet the socially savvy AIs beginning to understand human intentions (New Scientist)
Why you shouldn’t trust AI search engines (MIT Technology Review)
Father of internet warns: Don’t rush investments into A.I. just because ChatGPT is ‘really cool’ (CNBC)
Objects shot down aren't from China, likely ‘benign’, Kirby says (Politico)
Rumors swirl about balloons, UFOs as officials stay mum (AP)
The U.S. military said it had recovered critical electronics from the suspected Chinese spy balloon downed by a fighter jet off South Carolina's coast on February 4, including key sensors presumably used for intelligence gathering. (Reuters)
As Mystery Objects Get Shot Down, U.S. Sets Up New Task Force on UFOs (WSJ)
Why the government suddenly started detecting mysterious aerial objects (CNN)
U.S. jet missed with first missile while downing object over Lake Huron (WP)
Trump's plan for a 2nd term reportedly includes firing squads, hangings, and group executions (Rolling Stone)
Nikki Haley Is The First Woman of Color To Run For The Republican Nomination (538)
Bolton says Haley is ‘really running for vice president’ (The Hill)
Feinstein: Will Not Run for Reelection in 2024, Focus on This Congress (Feinstein)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and progressive Democrats reintroduced a bill to increase Social Security retirement benefits amid a national debate over the program between President Joe Biden and congressional Republicans. Their proposal would make Social Security fully solvent through taxes on higher earners and corporations. [HuffPost]
Student loan borrowers are pinning their financial futures on debt forgiveness (Yahoo)
Slack is ditching its stunning San Francisco headquarters — designed to make workers feel like they were in waterfalls and glaciers — and moving into Salesforce Tower to cut costs (Fortune)
Cleaning Out Your Google Drive or Gmail Could Save You Money (CNET)
Ex-BBC Afghan journalists may be evacuated to UK after legal challenge (BBC)
Russian forces bombarded Ukrainian troops and towns along the frontlines in eastern Donetsk region in what appeared to be early salvoes of a new offensive as Western allies met in Brussels to plan stepped-up supplies to the Kyiv government. (Reuters)
Top US general says Russia has already 'lost' the Ukraine war and has paid an 'enormous price on the battlefield' (Business Insider)
Nato chief says ‘no signs’ Putin wants peace as he issues ammunition call (Guardian)
‘Strongly opposed’: European powers denounce Israel settlements (Al Jazeera)
Sketches Hint Leonardo da Vinci Grasped Gravity a Century Ahead of Newton (ScienceAlert)
Watch your step: Balance ability predicts cognitive impairment (Medical Press)
Women journalists are harassed and abused by a global scourge of online attacks (WP)
Amazon Echo Declares It Heard Everything And It’s Taking The Kids (The Onion)
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