Election on TikTok Time

Conventional wisdom has it that if Joe Biden is going to drop out of the race, he better do it soon if Democrats are to have a chance in November. 

But the sped-up, always-on social-media news churn of 2024 is unlike any election season we’ve ever witnessed, so the usual assumptions may no longer apply.

One of the reasons analysts assume Biden needs to act fast is that traditional political campaigns take a long time to get under way and generate the momentum needed to win elections. So, according to that reasoning, a replacement for Biden would need a lengthy on-ramp to be competitive.

But this is an age of almost instant communication on multiple platforms, capable of spurring large swaths of public opinion to turn on a dime, or maybe a bitcoin. This election cycle, one random social media meme might carry more weight than an august New York Times editorial board statement, for better or for worse.

Given this odd reality, it isn’t hard to imagine the sudden emergence of a new candidate — say Kamala Harris — igniting a surge in the polls that could swing the electoral outcome even if that doesn’t start happening until September, long after the Democratic convention ends.

Those who hate and fear a return of Trump have to at least hope such an alternative scenario is possible because Biden shows no sign of leaving the race — yet. But he definitely shows signs that his age is taking its toll.

HEADLINES:

• Joe Biden’s determination to stay in race divides congressional Democrats (Financial Times)

• Pelosi Suggests That Biden Should Reconsider Decision to Stay in the Race (NYT)

• Before Biden can save Ukraine, he must use the NATO summit to save himself (CNN)

• A revived NATO marks 75 years, but political uncertainty clouds its future (WP)

• Supreme Court immunity decision collides with Trump’s NY conviction   (The Hill)

• Trump and the Republican National Committee released a schedule for their convention next week that waxes nostalgic for his years in office. These years included violent crime spiking, thousands of Americans dying from COVID and an attempted coup. [HuffPost]

• Is college worth it? Poll finds only 36% of Americans have confidence in higher education (AP)

• 2.2 million still without power in sweltering heat as Texas begins cleaning up in Hurricane Beryl's wake (Fox)

• Russian court orders arrest of opposition leader Navalny’s widow (AP)

• Gulf Toads Send Out Mating Calls During Beryl — Experts say that the rain, cooler temperatures and barometric pressure drops caused by Beryl stimulated toads in Texas to mate. (NYT)

• He makes giant trolls out of trash, hides them in woods for people to find (WP)

• Target will stop accepting personal checks next week. Are the days of the payment method numbered? (AP)

• Alibaba bets on gen AI tools for overseas merchants, executive says (Reuters)

• Tool preventing AI mimicry cracked; artists wonder what’s next (Ars Technica)

• Microsoft Won’t Follow OpenAI in Blocking China’s Access to AI Models (PYMNTS)

• Lonely Elementary Schooler Already Crushing Library’s Summer Reading Program (The Onion)