Sunday, July 28, 2024

Electoral Math

It’s been quite a week for Kamala Harris. Polls indicate that she has already pulled even with Donald Trump nationally with about 100 days to go until the election.

Of course, winning the popular vote doesn’t determine who becomes president — that is a matter of which candidate wins the most electoral votes. And when it comes to the Electoral College, the legacy system we’ve inherited currently favors Republicans. 

But the national polls matter. Based on past elections, in order to prevail in the electoral vote count, the Democratic candidate needs to win the popular vote by a healthy margin. In 2020, for example, Joe Biden had 7 million more popular votes thanTrump nationally — a margin of 4.5 percent. 

Even if Harris can do that, she likely won’t be elected president unless she wins most of the six key battleground states. 

The state polls to keep a close eye on in the coming weeks and months are in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. You can maybe add North Carolina to that list. Everything else seems pretty much a wash.

The good news for Democrats is the latest polls already show Harris in a dead heat with Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

HEADLINES:

 

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