Tuesday, August 13, 2024

If Trump Loses


 Yesterday I delved into the numbers indicating that Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in the polls of voters nationally. Today she is up by 2.8 percent, so she is rapidly widening the gap.

But the next President will not be selected by the popular vote because we don’t have direct democracy in the U.S.

What matters instead is the Electoral College and in that regard, whoever prevails in the six “battleground” states will probably win the election.

There’s good news there for Harris as well. She now leads Trump among likely voters in three of those states, the so-called “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a margin of 50-46.

If these numbers reflect what happens on Election Day, Harris will almost certainly win the presidency, even if Trump wins the other three swing states, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Given the direction this race has taken, it’s not too soon to think about what could happen if Trump loses. He is already preparing his story line that the election will have been “stolen,” just as he maintains happened in 2020.

His baseless claims ignited an insurrection on January 6, 2021. If he loses again, his supporters may well descend into madness.

So what would happen then? Would there be riots by Trump’s fanatic fringe? Would the lame duck President have to declare martial law to maintain order? How long would it last? Can democracy survive?

Polls, no matter how accurate, cannot answer those questions…

HEADLINES:

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