Yesterday I delved into the numbers indicating that Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in the polls of voters nationally. Today she is up by 2.8 percent, so she is rapidly widening the gap.
But the next President will not be selected by the popular vote because we don’t have direct democracy in the U.S.
What matters instead is the Electoral College and in that regard, whoever prevails in the six “battleground” states will probably win the election.
There’s good news there for Harris as well. She now leads Trump among likely voters in three of those states, the so-called “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a margin of 50-46.
If these numbers reflect what happens on Election Day, Harris will almost certainly win the presidency, even if Trump wins the other three swing states, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
Given the direction this race has taken, it’s not too soon to think about what could happen if Trump loses. He is already preparing his story line that the election will have been “stolen,” just as he maintains happened in 2020.
His baseless claims ignited an insurrection on January 6, 2021. If he loses again, his supporters may well descend into madness.
So what would happen then? Would there be riots by Trump’s fanatic fringe? Would the lame duck President have to declare martial law to maintain order? How long would it last? Can democracy survive?
Polls, no matter how accurate, cannot answer those questions…
HEADLINES:
Putin says Ukraine's attack on Russia is aimed at ceasefire negotiations (Reuters)
Trump rambles, slurs his way through Elon Musk interview. It was an unmitigated disaster. (USA Today)
Trump Can’t Deal With Harris’s Success (Atlantic)
‘A different level than 2020’: Trump’s plan to steal election is taking shape (Guardian)
Trump falsely claims Harris used AI to generate visuals depicting large crowds (USA Today)
‘AI’ crowds and unskewed polls: Trump prepares to reject another loss (WP)
Trump is returning to X for a live interview with the platform’s owner, Elon Musk (AP)
Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find (NYT)
Inflation Hurts Most for the Things We Can’t Skimp On (WSJ)
On the Edge by Nate Silver — the risk-takers who beat the market (Financial Times)
How life-threatening are heat waves going to be with global warming? (WP)
Defense secretary orders submarine to Middle East, accelerates arrival of strike group ahead of anticipated Iran attack (CNN)
The Undoing of Israel (Foreign Affairs)
Fearing war, unsettled at home, Iran weighs retaliation against Israel (WP)
New Mars study suggests an ocean's worth of water may be hiding beneath the red dusty surface (AP)
Horses can plan ahead and think strategically, scientists find (Guardian)
Can You Be Emotionally Reliant on an A.I. Voice? OpenAI Says Yes. (NYT)
7 things ChatGPT can do you should try today (Tom’s Guide)
Study: Gen Z Having Less Sex Due To Allure Of Leftovers At Home (The Onion)
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