We’ve all learned to bring a healthy degree of skepticism to polls, especially those at this stage of a presidential election, i.e., with three months still to go. Even if the current polls are accurate, a lot can change over the next 90 days.
But the field of polling is dynamic in the sense that it is changing and evolving in real time. Pollsters have to take into account the changing demographics of the electorate and technological developments such as reliance on cell phones rather than land lines.
One of the ways the leading polling companies hedge against inaccuracy is by aggregating polls — this is what has helped 538 to prominence in recent years.
So I decided to take a closer look at 538’s current numbers at a slightly more granular level in the hope of better evaluating their accuracy.
According to 538, Harris is now leading Trump nationally by 2.4 percent, 45.9 - 43.5. These are averages of 14 recent polls that are considered reputable based on their performance over time.
Ten of the 14 queried registered voters (who may or may not be likely to vote), whereas the other four queried likely voters. Among registered voters, Harris leads in nine of the ten recent polls, Trump in one.
In the four polls of likely voters, two indicate the candidates are tied, and Harris leads in the other two.
As for the margins, the one poll that has Trump in front says he is up by 2 points. Of the 11 that have Harris in the lead, three have her at +1, two have her at +2, four have her at +3. one has her at +4. and one at +5.
So overall, Harris is leading in 11, Trump in 1 and 2 are even. By way of comparison, 11-1-2 would be a darn good record for a sports team. That is a winning percentage of 85.71.
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