The Numbers

The polls at this point are like snapshots — they capture a moment in time but the longer term trend is what matters.

And for the past three weeks, the trend indicates that Harris has been overtaking Trump in the national polls. According to the latest average presidential polls, Harris leads by 45.4 percent to Trump’s 43.4 percent.

That lead of 2 percent is not yet at the level that will be needed for the Democrat to win the election, but it is heading toward that point at a steady pace. It will probably take a margin of at least 4 percent in the national popular vote for Harris to amass the 270 electoral votes to prevail.

Without delving into the details on too granular a level, the popular vote totals matter only because they trickle down into smaller margins among critical demographic groups in the 7 swing states that will almost certainly determine the election.

According to the Cook Political Report, Harris has pulled even with Trump in three of those — Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Other polls indicate that three more — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are now also tossups.

There is reason to believe, based on history, that Harris will get an additional bounce from the upcoming Democratic Convention.

And although there’s still almost three months until the election, based on the latest numbers, I’m not sure it will be technically correct to call Harris the underdog much longer.

HEADLINES:

• Why Ukraine’s generals may have rolled the dice on an incursion into Russia (CNN)

• Ukraine's using its cheap drones to blind the eyes in the sky guiding Russia's behind-the-lines strikes (Business Insider)

• Harris Takes Lead in National Polls Over Trump by 2 % (538)

• In 2022, Trump took a private flight with Project 2025 leader (WP)

• Project 2025 Proposes Eliminating Aid for Families and Businesses Rebuilding After Storms (American Progress)

• Trump complains about campaign as advisers try to focus on attacking Harris (WP)

• ABC says Trump and Harris have agreed to participate in a presidential debate on Sept. 10 (AP)

• Tim Walz’s Sudden Rise in the Democratic Party Was No Accident (NYT)

• Walz is giving MAGA a master class in manhood (MSNBC)

• Chutkan in charge: Judge ignites flurry of activity in Trump Jan. 6 case (The Hill)

• Nancy Pelosi’s Art of Power (New Yorker)

• Tech Investors Are the Latest to Zoom for Harris (NYT)

• Stocks rally on good jobs data, proving it’s too early to write off the U.S. economy (CNBC)

• Austria finds chemicals in the house of the main suspect in a planned attack on Taylor Swift concerts (Reuters)

• Facing budget crunches, Chinese tax collectors descend on companies (AP)

• Smashing idea: how East Germany invented ‘unbreakable’ drinking glasses (Guardian)

• The Best Therapy for Our Anxiety Epidemic (Anxiety)

• The New A.I. Deal: Buy Everything but the Company (NYT)

• Good Luck Selling Your AI Startup (Wired)

• OpenAI is a bigger threat to Google than US regulators (Reuters)

• Screaming Trump Takes Out Frustrations On Person He Assumes Is J.D. Vance (The Onion)