Predicting the outcome of this year’s election is like trying to guess where on the Gulf Coast Helene will make landfall — it’s anyone’s guess. Many of us would desperately like to discern a clear pattern among the likely voters, but the polls only reveal a complicated, murky picture.
And the maddening thing about polls is that, although over recent years they have become arguably more accurate, they still have such a large margin of error that in a close race like this year’s, any prediction would be problematic.
Still, we can try.
Based on the polling averages compiled by 538, Kamala Harris maintains a 2.6 point lead over Donald Trump nationally. This translates into a projected victory by over 4 million votes, but of course the popular vote is not what really matters here.
In modern times the Democrats almost always win the popular vote; they’ve done so every election cycle since 1992, save one. That lone exception was George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004, which came after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Every other time, the Republicans have lost the popular vote, though twice (2000-Bush and 2016-Trump) they’ve won in the Electoral College. The GOP has a built-in advantage in the Electoral College, which all but renders the popular vote meaningless.
That said, if this year’s election were today, based on 538’s latest polling averages, which are the best we have, Harris also would narrowly win in the Electoral College, 276-262. Her totals would include a sweep of the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where she is currently ahead, as well as in Nevada and the “blue dot” district in Nebraska, where she also leads.
Trump, meanwhile, maintains slim leads in the sunbelt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
But what is messy about all this is that in all seven swing states, the margins are excruciatingly thin — from half a point to two-and-a-half points, tops.
So trying to predict the outcome is maddening. Everything remains up for grabs, it would seem, and whoever wins will probably do so by a whisker.
Meanwhile, when these twin partisan storms finally hit the continent sometime around November 5th, much like with hurricanes there’s likely to be collateral damage.
HEADLINES:
Florida Facing Major Hurricane Threat Thursday (Weather Channel)
Evacuations begin in Florida as the state faces a major hurricane strike from Helene (CNN)
US is sending more troops to the Middle East as violence rises between Israel and Hezbollah (AP)
Raising the Stakes, Israel Gambles That Hezbollah Will Back Down (NYT)
Israel and Hezbollah renew fire after the deadliest day in Lebanon since 2006 (AP)
Biden says ‘Putin’s war has failed’ and vows support for Ukraine in address to UN leaders (Guardian)
Fed's rate cut offers limited relief for US factories facing China competition (Reuters)
What Does China’s Stimulus Mean for Your Money? (Bloomberg)
FBI finds violent crime declined in 2023 (AP)
Mark Robinson Scandal in North Carolina Injects Chaos Into Presidential Race (WSJ)
Trump’s pledge to deport legal immigrants is toxic in more ways than one (WP)
Haitian group in Springfield, Ohio, files citizen criminal charges against Trump and Vance (AP)
Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Sun Belt Battlegrounds, Polls Find (NYT)
Polling Whiplash (American Prospect)
The GOP conceded defeat in their push to change how the state of Nebraska counts its electoral votes as a way to help former President Donald Trump beat Vice President Kamala Harris in November after a key Republican opposed the move. [HuffPost]
Understanding the Republican Party’s rightward march (Economist)
Trump foments distrust of federal law enforcement over assassination attempt probe (WP)
Cats have more freedom than Afghan women - Meryl Streep (BBC)
‘U.S. News’ ranks UC Berkeley No. 2 public school in the country (UC Berkeley)
Football Hall of Famer Brett Favre says he has been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease (CNN)
Will A.I. Be a Bust? A Wall Street Skeptic Rings the Alarm. (NYT)
They think they’re building God (Verge)
Artificial intelligence could someday help spot dementia sooner. (WP)
Amazon Update Says Package Now Arriving When The Sky Shatters, The Sun Shines Black, And Rivers Weep Like Men (The Onion)
TODAY’s LYRICS: ”You ain't goin' nowhere”
Clouds so swift, rain won't lift
Gate won't close, railing's froze
Get your mind off wintertime
You ain't goin' nowhere
Ooh-wee, ride me high
Tomorrow's the day my bride's gonna come
Oh-ho, are we gonna fly
Down in the easy chair?
I don't care how many letters they sent
The morning came, the morning went
Pack up your money, pick up your tent
You ain't goin' nowhere
Ooh-wee, ride me high
Tomorrow's the day my bride's gonna come
Oh-ho, are we gonna fly
Down in the easy chair?
Buy me a flute and a gun that shoots
Tailgates and substitutes
Strap yourself to a tree with roots
You ain't goin' nowhere
Ooh-wee, ride me high
Tomorrow's the day my bride's gonna come
Oh-ho, are we gonna fly
Down in the easy chair?
Now Genghis Khan, he could not keep
All his kings supplied with sleep
We'll climb that hill, no matter how steep
When we get up to it
Ooh-wee, ride me high
Tomorrow's the day my bride's gonna come
Oh-ho, are we gonna fly
Down in the easy chair?
Ooh-wee, ride me high
Tomorrow's the day my bride's gonna come
Oh-ho, are we gonna fly
Down in the easy chair?
— Bob Dylan
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