Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Showdown: What if our democracy falls within the 'margin of error'?


On the eve of what may well be the only debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the candidates seemed to be locked in a dead heat. The polling from 538 had Harris ahead nationally 47.2-44.4, or by only 2.8 points, which was down from a high of 3.7 on August 23.

That seems like bad news for the Democrats. Rather than receiving a post-convention bounce, as has happened traditionally, Harris’s lead peaked at the convention and has gone down by 24 percent since.

But it’s important to remember that virtually nothing about this year’s campaign has fit within traditional norms, so we really do not have any historical data to use as a comparison. 

Meanwhile, what is well documented is that, barring a titanic shift, there will be only seven states plus one split-state electoral district in Nebraska where the election will be decided. 

Here things are trending ever so slightly in Harris’s favor as of 8 am PT this morning:

  • Wisconsin — Harris +2.8

  • Michigan — Harris +1.9

  • Pennsylvania — Harris +1.0

  • Nevada — Harris +0.4

  • Georgia — Trump +0.5

  • North Carolina — Harris +0.3

  • Arizona — Trump +0.6

  • ‘Blue Dot’ Nebraska d2 — Harris +5.0 (no recent polls)

So the good news for Harris is she is ahead by a whisker in five of the seven swing states plus the blue dot of Nebraska. Obviously, these all have to be considered as within the margin of error, however, i.e. too close to call. In fact, it may be that the fate of our country has fallen within the margin of error, considering what would happen if Trump were elected.

Meanwhile, this battle between the parties resembles that of two siblings fighting over a single piece of pie. Each is determined to make sure that the other one doesn’t get a bigger share, so much so that it all comes down to a few crumbles one way or another. 

Note that all this, again according to 538, is based on only what 91.6 percent of the voters say they are gonna do. So what about that other 8.4? That’s enough to take the whole pie fight to another level.

Okay, forget about the pie and go back to the electorate. Are those 8.4 percent going to sit this thing out, or are they those elusive “undecideds” we keep hearing about, or do they inhabit the dark margins of society where no pollster dares to venture? (I thought Trump had the dark side all tied up.)

Now in case all this oddball math has you scratching your beret, rest assured that whatever the answers to these questions may be, one thing is crystal clear: The stakes tonight are very, very high. 

HEADLINES: 

 

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