Once the dueling versions of reality — and visions for America — on display during Tuesday night’s debate settle in, we might expect to see some movement in the poll numbers, but I doubt any dramatic shift will happen in the short term.
Nationally, the race has been gradually tightening over the past three weeks, with Trump edging closer to Harris, who led by 3.7 points at the close of the Democratic National Convention. She still has the lead but it has shrunk to 2.6 points, 47 percent to 44.4 percent.
The debate will prove to have been a success for Harris if over the coming days and weeks she reverses the erosion of her lead (which peaked on August 23), and adds to it going forward.
Not to be melodramatic, but one way to understand all of this is to imagine that the candidates are passengers on massive ocean liners that can only change direction very, very gradually as they steer the course toward Election Day, now less than two months away on November 5.
They both know all too well that an iceberg looms straight ahead, so in order to win this slow-motion race, each ship needs to adjust its course a little bit to the left or a little bit to the right as they near the iceberg.
One of them is going to guess wrong, hit the iceberg and sink to the bottom. The other is going to claim the prize, which is the Presidency.
To push this theme a bit further than one probably should, think of the ending of James Cameron’s cinematic version of the Titanic story and the fictional characters played by Leo and Kate.
The man is the one who sank and the woman survived to tell the tail.
This time around, that would be a happy ending.
***
Note: The reason I mainly cite 538 when I write about the polls is because that site averages practically of the credible polls that have been published over time, with weight given to the recency, methodology and credibility of the pollsters. I will also link to individual polls on a daily basis, but I consider them less reliable than 538’s “poll of polls.”
HEADLINES:
The Debate Was About Trump. That Was Good for Harris. (NYT)
Donald Trump Had a Really, Really Bad Debate (New Yorker)
Undecided Americans impressed by Harris - but did debate shift their votes? (BBC)
Donald Trump faces his own debate fallout just months after benefiting from Joe Biden’s (AP)
Snap poll after debate reveals state of presidential race between Trump and Harris (Independent)
Harris and Trump Bet on Their Own Sharply Contrasting Views of America (NYT)
"In Springfield (Ohio), they're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats. They're eating, they're eating the pets of the people that live there.” (Politifact)
Hurricane Francine To Make Landfall In Louisiana With Storm Surge, High Winds, Flooding Rain (Weather Channel)
Smoky skies thicken Las Vegas air as California fires blaze to the southwest (CBS)
Inflation drops to lowest level since Feb. 2021 as Fed plans rate cut (WP)
Indian migrants drive surge in northern U.S. border crossings (NPR)
‘Do not laugh. Do not wear this. Do not speak aloud’: life under the Taliban (Guardian)
Zelenskiy says 'victory plan' could push Russia to end war diplomatically (Reuters)
Israel Strikes Area Packed With Displaced Civilians (NYT)
The US-Russia battle for influence in Africa plays out in Central African Republic (AP)
Typhoon Yagi kills more than 150 people in Vietnam (Reuters)
Will California flip the AI industry on its head? (Verge)
How CEOs Are Using Gen AI for Strategic Planning (HBR)
Report: Government Shutdown Could Imperil Hundreds Of Americans Currently At Top Of Federally Funded Ferris Wheels (The Onion)
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