Twelve days left. Nate Silver thinks Trump will win. James Carville believes Harris will win. No one can say Americans don’t have a choice, but nobody knows who they are going to choose.
According to the polls, it’s become a game of micro-movements. The numbers seemed to be trending for Trump for a while until Wednesday, when they suddenly inched more in Harris’s direction.
As far as the only places that matter in the presidential race, which are the seven swing states. Harris leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump leads in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.
Trump also leads in Pennsylvania, which combined with the above would prove determinative, but only by such a tiny margin, 0.3 percentage points, that 538 calls it a tossup.
To give you a sense, that means only about 21,000 people who could swing the whole thing one direction or another, which is utterly ridiculous when it looks like Harris is going to win the national vote by around 3 million votes. As a percentage of the electorate, that is 0.0001336 percent.
The smallest known thing in our universe is a quark. And that’s what separates our democracy from chaos right now.
HEADLINES:
As Election Looms, Disinformation ‘Has Never Been Worse’ (NYT)
Nate Silver: ‘My gut says’ Trump will win (The Hill)
Kamala Harris denounces Trump as ‘fascist’ who wants ‘unchecked power’ (Guardian)
James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win (NYT)
Donald Trump's campaign is behaving remarkably irrationally (MSNBC)
Fox Host Says Maybe Trump Didn’t Realize Hitler’s Generals Were Nazis (Rolling Stone)
The U.S. Spies Who Warn About Election Interference (New Yorker)
Election officials are fighting a tsunami of voting conspiracy theories (AP)
Vice President Kamala Harris said her team is prepared to counter Trump if he prematurely declares victory in next month's election. Harris also dismissed the possibility that Americans wouldn’t vote for her because she’s a woman. [HuffPost]
The banality of Elon (Vox)
U.S. officials say Russia smeared Tim Walz and might stoke post-vote violence (WP)
Immigrant voters: 'The money in US politics absolutely scares me' (BBC)
Over 230 Republican candidates have cast doubt on the 2024 election (WP)
Bill Gates has reportedly donated about $50 million to support Harris' White House bid through a nonprofit group. [HuffPost]
Russia and Iran may fuel violent post-election protests in the US, intelligence officials warn (AP)
Giuliani assets will transfer to Georgia election workers he defamed (WP)
Terrorist Attack Hits Major Defense Facility in Turkey (WSJ)
US says evidence shows North Korea has troops in Russia, possibly for Ukraine war (Reuters)
Hizbullah’s sprawling financial empire looks newly vulnerable (Economist)
Trying to reverse climate change won’t save us, scientists warn (Verge)
In Havana's still dark corners, a protest erupts (Reuters)
What the surging gold price says about a dangerous world (Economist)
Why Los Angeles Is Becoming a Production Graveyard (Hollywood Reporter)
This Week in AI: The AI agents cometh (TechCrunch)
Amazon's 'zombie' data centers are a warning for the entire AI industry (Business Insider)
Dead Bird On Sidewalk Leads Man To Contemplate Own Inevitable Collision With Plate Glass (The Onion)
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