Forget the Math

 As one who is frequently quoting the polls, today I’m going to illustrate why you can also completely ignore the polls and have just as good as a chance of predicting who’s going to be the next president of the U.S.

Harry Eaten of CNN cites data on the swing states going back as far as 1972 to indicate the average error rate in the polls prior to an election averaged 3.4 percent.

There is no poll anywhere in any of the seven swing states showing either candidate with anywhere near a 3.4 percentage point lead. At last check, 538 has Trump ahead by 1.6 points in Georgia, for example. Given the historical average error rate, that only tells us that there’s an equal chance of a Trump victory of 5 points and a Harris victory by 1.8 points.

So the margin of error “swing” in Georgia and every other battleground state is roughly 6.8 points, based on history. In Pennsylvania, Harris could win by 3 or lose by 3.8 — and so on down the list. You get the point — we don’t really know from the polls what’s going to happen at all.

So instead of just reciting more of what is essentially meaningless math, I’m going to switch gears this morning and turn to instincts and hunches. These are based on several assumptions:

• Most “undecided” voters aren’t paying attention and will choose the party they have in the past. The candidates don’t really matter. These “undecided” guys are going to break 50-50..

• Unfortunately, a certain portion of voters simply will not vote for a woman. But other voters will vote for Harris because she is a woman. These factors would probably cancel each other out, except for the Dobbs decision on abortion. Advantage: Harris.

• First-time voters are probably going to matter a lot and they are inherently difficult to measure since there are no precedents for how they may vote. Most are 18-25 and may not vote the same as their parents. My gut is that this time they will break for Harris.

These assumptions may or may not hit the mark but whichever candidate can stir up the most excitement in the final ten days will probably get more of those first-timers on their side. That, plus a greater surge by women voters motivated by reproductive freedom will give Harris the advantage in the end.

HEADLINES:

• Harris and Trump Deadlocked to the End, Final Times/Siena National Poll Finds (NYT)

• Three Lebanese journalists killed in Israeli strike (BBC)

• South Korea warns it may send Ukraine weapons after North Korea sent troops to Russia (NPR)

• These Places Have Democracy Watchdogs Bracing for Potential Election Discord (NYT)

• The GOP has reportedly recruited a 200,000-strong "army" of pro-Trump poll watchers who will swarm polling sites on Election Day, new reporting shows. And on Monday, Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC debuted a so-called "Election Integrity Community" on X, where misinformation about voter fraud is already running rampant.  (Mother Jones)

• The Group at the Center of Trump’s Planning for a Second Term Is One You Haven’t Heard of (NYT)

• Republican poll watchers in battleground states worry US election experts (Reuters)

• Michigan Arabs and Muslims deeply split over supporting Harris (WP)

• Trump slams John Kelly for calling him a ‘fascist’ after Harris lauds comments (Guardian)

• Why Gender May Be the Defining Issue of the Election — The issue is rarely directly addressed by either Vice President Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. But the 2024 contest is, in ways overt and subtle, a referendum on the role of women in American life. (NYT)

• American creating deepfakes targeting Harris works with Russian intel, documents show (WP)

• Trump says he’d fire Jack Smith quickly if he wins another term in office (CNN)

• Why Fascism Doesn’t Stick to Trump (Slate)

• Trump reportedly met Rupert Murdoch, the former chairman of Fox Corp. and News Corp., to demand the conservative network be even nicer to him. [HuffPost]

• As Election Looms, Disinformation ‘Has Never Been Worse’ (NYT)

• World on track for catastrophic 3 degrees Celsius warming, UN warns (Politico)

• IMF chief warns that world risks falling into slow-growth rut and urges China to enact reforms (AP)

• The blistering rally in gold augurs ill for the power of the dollar (Economist)

• Inflation Has Cooled, but Americans Are Still Seething Over Prices (WSJ)

• Lost for centuries, Silk Road cities are revealed by drone technology (NBC)

• Local news sources are still drying up, but there's growth in digital sites in metro areas (AP)

• The AI Power List 2024  (Business Insider)

• Former OpenAI Researcher Says the Company Broke Copyright Law (NYT)

• Conservative Man Proudly Frightened Of Everything (The Onion)

LYRICS:

“Please don't tell me how the story ends” by Kris Kristofferson

This could be our last goodnight together
We may never pass this way again
Just let me enjoy 'till its over 
Or forever
Please don't tell me how the story ends

See the way our shadows come together
Softer than your fingers on my skin
Someday this may be all 
That we'll remember 
Of each other
Please don't tell me how the story ends

Never's just the echo of forever
Lonesome as the love that might have been
Just let me go on loving and believing 
'Till it's over
Please don't tell me how the story ends

Please don't tell me how the story ends