For many weeks now, I’ve been tracking the polls and writing regular reports outlining possible outcomes based on polling averages, relying on a combination of my own methodology combined with that used by the most reliable statistical site, 538.
So you might say I’ve been writing about the polls, but I would prefer to say that I’ve been writing about the math of American democracy.
Now a new documentary, “Counted Out,” explains why that matters.
In an interview with the filmmaker, Vicki Abeles, the Times explores the politics of math and its consequences:
When we limit access to the power of math to a select few, we limit our progress as a society.
In civic life, decisions are increasingly driven by data, by algorithms, by statistics. Without the ability to understand or even grapple with the numbers and their implications, people are easily disenfranchised and manipulated.
Many of our electoral and legislative systems are mathematical — collecting and tallying votes, allocating legislative seats, deciding sizes of legislatures, drawing district maps.
(Voters) are upset to learn that there is a path to win the presidency with only 23 percent of the popular vote, that gerrymandering is rampant, that the system silences and disenfranchises millions of people.
Plurality voting, which is the method we use to elect all but a handful of our 520,000 officials, is rife with problems. In plurality voting, the voter selects only their top choice. That approach doesn’t take in very much information, so math can do very little with it and therefore makes mistakes.
Ranked choice collects more information, so math can do more with it.
(We all need) to feel empowered to … ask questions when things don’t make sense, and to start to engage with the math that is all around (us).
This film takes on directly what I’ve found to be an extremely daunting challenge — how to overcome the barrier that too many Americans put up when they say, “I’m no good at math.”
They are good enough, but allowing one’s inner, fourth-grade voice to end the conversation freezes them from seeing how we could reform our system by using the power of math to achieve fairer, more equitable results, and thus democratize our future elections.
Meanwhile, the most basic reform to our electoral system would also reduce everything to the simplest math problem of all — the winner in presidential elections would be the candidate who gets the most votes. Currently, I project that will be Harris by a margin of 2,268,000 votes nationwide.
Further Readings:
How Not to Be Wrong — The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg.
How to Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff.
On the Edge by Nate Silver.
Spies, Lies, and Algorithms by Amy B. Zygart.
Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World by Tom Chivers.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't by Nate Silver.
***
(Thanks to T for pointing me to this interview.)
HEADLINES:
Why Democracy Lives and Dies by Math —A documentary filmmaker and a mathematician discuss our fear of numbers and its civic costs. (NYT)
What to know after ballot box fires in Washington and Oregon (CBS)
Autocracy and ‘enemy from within’ are thrust to center of campaign’s final days (WP)
Harris gives closing argument speech at the Ellipse, offering "a different path" than Trump (CBS)
Jeff Bezos’s Washington Post Op-Ed Is a Remarkable Document (NR)
Washington Post cancellations hit 250,000 – 10% of subscribers (Guardian)
Supreme Court allows Virginia to purge suspected noncitizens from voter registration rolls (CNN)
Adam Schiff, Not Yet a Senator, Deploys to Bolster Potential Future Colleagues (NYT)
Trump calls MSG rally ‘lovefest’ as polls show Harris tie (Al Jazeera)
Puerto Ricans in must-win Pennsylvania say Trump rally joke won’t be forgotten (BBC)
Trump says vulgar New York rally was a "love fest" (Axios)
The Memo: Trump campaign struggles to contain Puerto Rico October surprise (The Hill)
Israel passes laws to restrict the work of a UN agency that is a lifeline for Gaza (AP)
What the US election outcome means for Ukraine, Gaza and world conflict (BBC)
Israeli strikes in northern Gaza kill at least 78, officials say (AP)
This Toad Is So Tiny That They Call It a Flea (NYT)
Oceanographers record the largest predation event ever observed in the ocean (Phys.org)
Teri Garr, star of ‘Young Frankenstein’ and ‘Tootsie,’ dead at 79 (CNN)
New Cyber Attack Warning—Confirming You Are Not A Robot Can Be Dangerous (Forbes)
Arcade, a new AI product creation platform, designed this necklace (TechCrunch)
The AI boom may unleash a global surge in electronic waste (WP)
NASA Discovers Potential Life On Mars After Giant Eyeball In Middle Of Planet Looks Directly Into Telescope (The Onion)
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