My home state + the math of it all

So I grew up in Michigan, which holds one of the key upcoming primaries for the GOP. Conventional wisdom is that if Romney loses what was originally also *his* home state (Hi Mitt, glad to meet ya), the Republican race will remain competitive, perhaps up to the convention, which has hardly ever happened in modern times.

But honestly, having watched the last debate, I suspect that Romney will in fact secure Michigan, and so probably limp his way into his party's nomination. Santorum just is not quite ready for prime time yet, and his religious conservatism does not resonate beyond the small, aging 20 percent or so of social conservatives who, frankly, are going to die off before they ever see "their" man as President of this large, diverse, socially liberal country.

But, take a look at the polls. It really doesn't matter who wins on the GOP side when it comes to the general election. Michiganders know that their savior is the incumbent, Barack Obama.

The President has a double digit lead against any Republican and that is not going to change. Why? Because he saved the auto industry and everyone knows that.

As goes the auto industry, so goes Michigan, for better or worse.

In our era, thanks to Obama's bailout of GM and Chrysler, that equals better.

So, whatever happens in Michigan's primary, Obama wins Michigan in November. But that is only one state. Ultimately, under our electoral vote system, you have to do the math, state by state.

Since I clearly expect a Romney vs. Obama election, it will be time soon to track how that might turn out. It's clearly an open question as of now. Once I have a bit of time, I will crunch the state by state polls, match those with the electoral vote map, and do what I do every cycle, and make a prediction.

I can't do that yet, but my gut tells me we are in for a very close outcome nine months from now.