Elections=Math

One good thing about being among the long-term unemployed is I can study the election polls and do the math. Here, from a completely non-partisan perspective, is what I see as of this hour. This is not what I hope will happen but what, as of now, I believe will occur. This is completely subject to change. I will try to update these numbers tomorrow, on the eve of the election. As of now, here is what I see:

I've spent the past couple hours pouring over all the polling data I can find state by state in the 8 states that appear to still be in play. It is actually maddeningly close and therefore uncertain in most of these places, although I would say it is trending Obama in most of them (details below).

Before those 8, it looks like Obama is ahead in electoral votes, 237-206. The only way that number could change is if the five states that appear to be settled should pivot dramatically in the last 48 hours. Those five are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico (41), which would have to move away from Obama, or if North Caroline and Arizona (26) move away from Romney.

Looking at polling trends I am going to assume neither of those scenarios will occur.

So that leaves 8 races in play:

Florida (29) is leaning Romney but could go either way. Let's give it to Romney.
Ohio (18) is leaning Obama. I think he will win this state.
Virginia (13) is leaning Obama. I think he will win this state.
Wisconsin (10) is leaning Obama. Let's give it to Obama.
Colorado (9) is dead even. Let's give it to Romney.
Iowa (6) is leaning Obama. Let's give it to Romney.
Nevada (6) is leaning Obama. Let's give it Romney.
New Hampshire (4) is leaning Obama. Let's give it to Romney.

Final totals?

Obama 278 Romney 260.

I believe this is the best case scenario for Romney. A more likely outcome is 294-244, Obama.

I will redo this math tomorrow...