Pre-Election Trending

I'm excited that my 18-year-old can vote tomorrow.

Here is my latest analysis of polling data and trends.

In the Senate, I'd assumed the Democrats would lose a seat or two or even three, but now I predict they will maintain their current 53-47 seat advantage.

(One of the better sites to evaluate the Senate races is this one.)

I've not done any detailed analysis of the House races because simple math dictates that only with a massive sweep at the top of the ticket, which is not going to happen, could the Democrats take back the House from the GOP.

So I doubt my local Congressperson, Nancy Pelosi, is going to once again become Speaker of the House.

Perhaps in 2014, however, given how the right is trending.

On to the Presidency.

Here is a site that reveals just how close the race may be.

Probably the best journalistic assessment on how tomorrow's electoral map will turn out is here, and that indicates Obama within 27 electoral votes of a victory.

To accomplish that, he has 89 in play. The largest prize is Florida. If Obama wins there, this election is over.

But he can lose that and still prevail, which is why his campaign has largely ceded Florida to Romney.

The odd thing is, when I look at this closely, is the demographics of Florida are such that Obama could easily win the state tomorrow, mainly on the strength of Latino votes.

His campaign may sense that also.

This brings up a scenario no one is talking about anywhere on the political web or social media that I have been able to locate.

What if Obama wins in a landslide tomorrow?

If Latinos carry Florida for the Democrats, Obama will also win most of the other states in play, and beat Romney by as much as 332 to 206.

The popular vote would still be close but a good guess of that would be 52-48 Obama, which is my best guess as of now.

I have to get out my calculator, monitor more polls, and study more history before I can finalize these predictions.

But tonight I sense we are on the verge of some sort of big surprise, and that it is not the one Romney supporters may be wishing for...

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