This November

I hate polls. But they are the best thing we have to judge what is going to happen on Election Day two-and-a-half weeks from now.

The best way to consume polls, IMHO, is to follow Nate Silver’s 538 site. As the most sophisticated polling service available to the general public, it approximates the accuracy of the in-house polls conducted by the political parties.

And Silver is out with an analysis confirming the pattern I have been noticing all summer: That after the Supreme Court decision nullifying Roe v. Wade, the Democrats’ chances of controlling the Senate rose sharply, peaking at 71 percent last month.

But since then they have been falling steadily, to the point now where they rest at only 56 percent. Silver labels this a virtual “toss-up.”

Meanwhile, control of the House is virtually a foregone conclusion: The GOP’s chances there are a prohibitive 81 percent.

Why does any of this matter? The Dems will still control the White House, at least until the next election in 2024, and many Americans think a split government is fine.

Well, the problem is the Republican Party has way too many candidates who are election deniers — those who say they believe the claim that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.

There is and never has been any evidence that the election was stolen. If anything, Trump tried to steal it by pressuring local officials in multiple states to decertify the results. . Rewarding those Republicans for misleading the public would be a dangerous move that ultimately could threaten our democracy.

So Silver’s article is a sobering piece of evidence that we, as a society, are now in deep trouble. I, for one, dread the results of the Nov. 8th midterm elections.

NEWSLINKS:

• Why I'm Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up (Nate Silver/538)

• Steve Bannon Sentenced To Four Months In Prison For Contempt Of Congress (MSNBC)

• Steve Bannon sentencing: Jail term shows January 6 risks for Trump (BBC)

• The decider: Jill Biden's unparalleled influence and impact on the president (NBC)

• A bad sign for Democrats in critical Nevada Senate race (Politico)

• Very bad news for Democrats in Senate and House races.Their chances in Senate fall to only 56% and the GOP’s chances in the House rise to 81%. (538)

• Miami judge dismisses voter fraud case trumpeted by DeSantis (Guardian)

• Trump says 15 Mar-a-Lago records, including clemency requests, are his (CNN)

• Jan. 6 panel issues subpoena to Trump, demanding he testify (AP)

• Lindsey Graham ordered to appear before Georgia grand jury probing 2020 election (ABC)

• Truss Defied the Markets, and They Ruthlessly Sealed Her Fate (NYT)

• Race for British prime minister is on (again) after Liz Truss quits (WP)

• Race to be next UK PM begins as momentum grows behind Boris Johnson (Reuters)

• Putin's martial law orders signal changes to Russian life may only just be starting (NBC)

• Russian threats revive old nuclear fears in central Europe (AP)

• Mass drone attacks in Ukraine foreshadow the ‘future of warfare’ (Al Jazeera)

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on the West to warn Russia not to blow up a huge dam that would flood a swath of southern Ukraine, as his forces prepare to push Moscow's troops from Kherson in one of the war's most important battles. (Reuters)

• Pakistan: Growing Militant Attacks Linked to Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan (VoA)

• Afghanistan human rights and humanitarian crisis continues, urgent action necessary, says UN expert (UN)

• Who Leaves, Who Stays — What happened when one Afghan family was forced to make a life-altering decision with no time to think (Atlantic)

• How Taiwan’s ‘Adorable’ and Ambitious Diplomacy Aims to Keep the Island Safe (NYT)

• U.S. budget deficit cut in half for biggest decrease ever amid Covid spending declines (CNBC)

• Musk said he will cut nearly 75 percent of Twitter’s staff if he takes control (WP)

• Courts Reject Challenges to Biden Plan on Student Debt (NYT)

• The world's top automakers are planning to spend nearly $1.2 trillion through 2030 to develop and produce millions of electric vehicles, along with the batteries and raw materials to support that production. (Reuters)

• Police investigating after landscapers find car buried decades ago in yard of multimillion-dollar California home (CBS)

• Maryland Will Review 100 Police Death Cases for Signs of Bias (NYT)

• Panthers trading star Christian McCaffrey to 49ers (ESPN)

• World's oldest complete star map, lost for millennia, found inside medieval manuscript (LiveScience)

• Greek monastery manuscripts tell new story of Ottoman rule (NPR)

• Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon, were the two major cities with the worst air quality in the world for the second day in a row Thursday due to wildfires burning in the Pacific Northwest. [HuffPost]

• Daniel Smith, one of the last children of enslaved Americans, dies at 90 (WP)

• Man Needs To Do Research On Which State He Lives In Before Deciding On Candidates He Can Vote For (The Onion)