Saturday, February 03, 2024

The Leaf

 When I was a boy in Michigan, one summer afternoon I was lying on my back in a field staring up at a large tree. It was one of those cloudless, windless days, hot and still, and I was lost in my day dreams. 


After a while, I realized that I had been staring at a single leaf that for no apparent reason was turning on its stem. As far as I could see, this leaf was identical to all the other leaves on that tree, but it was the only one moving.

I watched it for a while, utterly perplexed.

When I mentioned this incident to friends, one suggested maybe an insect or other small creature had caused the motion. Another suggested that perhaps the stem was weakened by disease and the leaf was preparing to fall.

But nobody knew for sure.

Over the sixty years since that afternoon, I’ve sometimes thought about that leaf when I encounter people who differentiate themselves by standing out from the crowd. It is an aspect of being a journalist that when I meet such people I seek explanations. 

In that context, returning to that day in Michigan, one leaf turning might be a story. Many leaves holding in place most often is not.

The problem with this set of assumptions is that by focusing on the exception to the rule, we may give the impression that the rule is no longer in order. An example of this is crime reporting. Covering one shocking crime, through a megaphone, can create the illusion that an entire city is “awash in crime” when the fact is the opposite is true. 

In fact, the horrific crime we are telling you about was actually just an anomaly, an outlier event. That is what made it a big story.

***

Of course, there is an entirely different way to tell that story. The solitary leaf I saw may have been ahead of its time — portending a climate disaster to come when all the other leaves remained quiet, steady in place, doing what they were expected to do.

In this version, the swinging leaf was a whistleblower, a ‘canary in the coal mine,’ an indicator of bigger problems.

Enter the investigative reporter, who picks up on the signal and spots a pattern that may provide an explanation for the turning leaf. After observing hundreds of trees, with many thousands of leaves, and interviewing numerous scientists, none of whom can say for sure, the reporter writes a more nuanced story based on the data.

In this new story, we learn that there are many such single leaves on many trees turning slowly on windless days where no one is there to see. But it is also possible that if no one saw them that it didn’t really happen. (Quantum physics.) Then again, perhaps there is a new disease affecting our trees that we need to address if we are to save the forest.

Meanwhile, the people reading this nuanced, carefully documented story are still thinking about that one leaf, turning without any known reason on a windless day. Just like the storyteller, perhaps they can’t see the tree for the leaves.

To say nothing of the forest.

(An earlier version of this essay appeared last April.)

HEADLINES:

  • House Judiciary Committee subpoenas Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (CNN)

  • Fani Willis acknowledges a ‘personal relationship’ with prosecutor she hired in Trump’s Georgia case (AP)

  • Manchin dismisses Mayorkas impeachment (Politico)

  • Analysis shows destruction and possible buffer zone along Gaza Strip’s border with Israel (AP)

  • Israeli forces shelled the outskirts of the last refuge on the southern edge of the Gaza Strip, where the displaced, penned against the border fence in their hundreds of thousands, said they feared a new assault with nowhere left to flee. (Reuters)

  • US hits hard at militias in Iraq and Syria, retaliating for fatal drone attack (AP)

  • Greta Thunberg cleared after unlawful protest arrest (BBC)

  • Meta spent billions to close offices and lay people off. Now we know why. (Business Insider)

  • Another shockingly good jobs report shows America's economy is booming (CNN)

  • Inflation has fallen. Why are groceries still so expensive? (WP)

  • Congressional Democrats tell Biden to do more on abortion after Ohio woman's arrest (NPR)

  • A Suddenly Media-Shy Speaker Can’t Answer Questions. He’s on the Phone. (NYT)

  • Pentagon to MAGA world: You need to calm down over Taylor Swift (Politico)

  • Is Taylor Swift a Biden psyop? Here’s the far-right’s ‘evidence’ (Independent)

  • Michigan school shooter's mother blames her husband in trial testimony (BBC)

  • Joshua Schulte, who sent CIA secrets to WikiLeaks, sentenced to 40 years (WP)

  • I Tested a Next-Gen AI Assistant. It Will Blow You Away (Wired)

  • This robot can tidy a room without any help (Technology Review)

  • Amazon made an AI bot to talk you through buying more stuff on Amazon (Verge)

  • It’s too expensive to replace human workers with AI—for now, says MIT study (CNBC)

  • Should we make our most powerful AI models open source to all? (Vox)

  • Walmart Releases Wolves Into Stores To Manage Shoplifter Density (The Onion)

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