The latest cover of The New Yorker depicts a roller coaster with the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz going up and the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and JD Vance going down.
The image, by Canadian-born cartoonist Barry Blitt, could not be a more perfect depiction of the nature of the presidential race at this point, emphasis added.
According to the average of recent national polls compiled by 538, Harris held a 2.6 percent lead over Trump on the eve of last week’s Democratic Convention; by the end of the event her lead had grown to 3.6 percent.
In a game of inches, that represents a whopping increase in one week of 38.5 percent. No wonder the Democrats in the cartoon are smiling and the Republicans look frustrated and concerned.
Of course, the outcome of the election will not be decided by the popular vote but by which candidate amasses the most electoral votes, according to the ancient, hoary process known as the Electoral College.
The way in which electoral votes are apportioned currently yields an inherent advantage to the Republican, such that statisticians calculate that the Democrat has to win the national popular vote by about 4 percent to prevail in the all-important Electoral College.
Accordingly, Joe Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by racking up a 4.5 percent advantage in the popular vote.
No matter what happens nationally, it is what happens in the six battleground states that matters more — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. And the candidates remain close in all six.
Back to that New Yorker cover image, anyone who’s ever ridden a roller coaster knows that when you’re low you’re gonna be high soon, and when you’re high you’re gonna be low soon.
The bouncing around only stops when the ride is over and this year that is scheduled for November 5th.
HEADLINES:
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A reenergized Democratic campaign surges to convention ratings win over Republicans (CNN)
Harris Faces Challenge of Translating Convention Joy to Fall Momentum (NYT)
Kamala Harris may rise or fall on whether voters are ready to embrace America’s changing face (LAT)
NASA picks SpaceX to bring back stuck astronauts, a blow to Boeing (WP)
Democracy Needs the Loser (New Yorker)
Now that the Democratic convention is over, Kamala Harris’ policy plans for her presidential run face new scrutiny. (Reuters)
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These New AI Bots Will Do Just About Anything for You (WSJ)
White Sox Promotion Puts First 9 Fans At Ballpark In Starting Lineup (The Onion)
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