Polling guru Nate Silver said over the weekend that Kamala Harris has opened up a 4 point advantage over Donald Trump nationally.
This lead — 4 percent — is significant because it is at that level that statisticians calculate the Democrat can pull ahead in the seven swing states that will determine the election.
Accordingly, Silver notes that Harris is starting to edge ahead in six of the seven battleground states.
“She leads in Arizona (46.6 percent to 45.1 percent), Michigan (48 percent to 44.6 percent), Pennsylvania (47.7 percent to 46 percent), and Wisconsin (48.9 percent to 45.5 percent).
“Trump leads in Georgia 47.5 percent to 46.8 percent and the race remains tight in North Carolina, with Harris at 46.8 percent and Trump at 46.5 percent, and Nevada, where Harris edges out Trump 46.2 percent to 45 percent.”
It will be notable if Harris makes further gains in the polls over the coming days, as the “bounce” from her party’s convention continues to kick in.
Silver, founder of the polling service 538, is now on his own, having sold 538 to ABC last year. Meanwhile, 538 has Harris’s lead over Trump nationally at 3.4 percent. And in yet another poll, The Economist reports Harris in the lead by 3 points.
Finally, if the election were held today, NPR now projects that Harris would garner the 270 electoral votes she needs to win.
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