As has been my habit at the end of each week throughout this election season, I’ve done the math based on the latest polls numbers. The results continue to be frustrating for anyone hoping to gain clarity about the likely outcome on Election Day.
But before getting to that, let’s review the candidates’ major initiatives for the week. Harris sat for all sorts of in-depth interviews, apparently hoping to quiet critics saying she has remained too aloof from the press.
She seemed to handle them reasonably well, but that most likely is neither here nor there when it comes to impacts on the voting electorate. Her appearances did, however, boost the ratings for the shows involved.
Meanwhile Trump seemed to be plunging further into a strange, demented state by turning his interview with pet-murderer Kristi Noem before a friendly audience into an awkward impromptu dance party. I’m going to have to wait for SNL’s version before commenting further on that.
While all that was happening, those of us keeping a close watch on the polls saw that the race for president continues to get ever closer, which borders on the unimaginable. As of this morning, 538 gives Harris a 52% chance of winning, with Trump at 48%.
There are only seven states really in play; all of the others are lopsided for one candidate or the other. There was a recent poll in Iowa showing Harris within 4 points of Trump there, but that has not been corroborated by any others.
Harris leads nationally by 2.4 percentage points, which translates into 3.9 million votes.
Meanwhile, over the past week, the numbers have continued to inch slightly in Trump’s favor. Using the latest poll averages from 538, I calculate the projected winning vote margins in the seven battlegrounds to now be as follows:
Arizona Trump +56,384 (+1.6%)
Georgia Trump +83,200 (+1.6%)
Michigan Harris +51,849 (+0.9%)
Nevada Harris +11,688 (+0.8%)
N. Carolina Trump +34,476 (+0.6%)
Pennsylvania Harris +43,290 (+0.6%)
Wisconsin. Harris +20,580 (+0.6%)
As of this morning, 538 projects that Harris will prevail in electoral votes, 273-265.
So you might as well flip a coin. Then again, the main new imponderable is the record early voting turnout in Georgia, where voters have been lining up to cast early votes. Who will that will favor is anyone’s guess — mine is Harris., because I think black and women voters show signs of being highly motivated this cycle.
(Note on methodology: I took the vote totals in each state in 2020, increased them by four percent to account for population growth and then used 538’s latest poll averages to calculate the number of likely vote totals and margins in each state.)
HEADLINES:
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar killed In Gaza, Israel confirms (CNN)
Who was Yahya Sinwar? (NPR)
Israel complicates election’s final stretch, an issue Democrats hoped would fade (WP)
China makes love and war with Taiwan (Economist)
Trump insults Harris in jibe-filled speech; ex-president reportedly canceling interviews due to ‘exhaustion’ (Guardian)
How Alarmed Should We Be If Trump Wins Again? (New Yorker)
More extremists in the US have a military background. Data shows that's especially dangerous (AP)
How foreign disinformation makes its way into the American mainstream (NBC)
A Weary Trump Whips Up Anger in Atlanta (NYT)
14-year-old who invented device to detect pesticides on produce named America’s Top Young Scientist (USA Today)
Hungry for Energy, Amazon, Google and Microsoft Turn to Nuclear Power (NYT)
Scientists are making artificial nests to help penguins breed. African penguins are among the world’s most endangered seabirds. (WP)
What an upcoming La Nina event could mean for winter weather (AP)
Public views on men and masculinity (Pew)
The AI Boom Has an Expiration Date (Atlantic)
Nvidia’s new open-source AI model beats GPT-4o on benchmarks (Cointelegraph)
Indecisive Hostage-Taker Asks What People Usually Demand (The Onion)
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