With three weeks left until the election, it’s become increasingly obvious that turnout will probably determine the outcome. In 2020, 66 percent or roughly two-thirds of those eligible actually voted, and unless something unexpected happens, we can anticipate a similar level of participation this time.
The unknowns that could affect turnout include the weather, voter intimidation, violence, illness, and renewed efforts in some states to suppress turnout. These play a role in the “margin of error” in all polls — nobody can with precise accuracy predict what the turnout will be.
And when it comes to polls, they are as unreliable as bobbers bouncing around in the waves on a windy day. They were memorably wrong in 2016, when pollsters badly underestimated the number of first-time voters who turned out for Trump; and in 2022, when pollsters predicting a “red wave” in the midterm elections badly underestimated the effect of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in helping Democrats outperform Republicans across the country.
By making abortion rights a keystone of the Harris campaign, Democrats are betting that this time a 2022-type surge will overwhelm a 2016-type surge. But it’s also likely that both of those factors are already baked into the electorate, as enough time has passed that both have been assimilated into voter decisions to a great extent.
Republican fears of a repeat of 2022 explain why Trump has publicly equivocated on his position on abortion, whereas Project 2025 makes it clear that he will push for a nationwide ban if elected. That Trump is an unfettered liar is something only half of the electorate cares about.
Meanwhile, as the election approaches, it is worth pondering how far our system has strayed from a direct democracy of one person, one vote. The U.S. is the only country using the outdated concept of an Electoral College to select its President. This year, as the Mercury-News reported, “Texas has one electoral vote for every 762,583 residents; Florida has one for every 753,691 residents; and California has one for every 721,578 residents.
“At the other end of the spectrum, Washington D.C. has one electoral vote for every 223,934 residents; Vermont has one for every 215,821 residents; and Wyoming has one for every 194,686 residents.”
HEADLINES:
Trump's protests aside, his agenda has plenty of overlap with Project 2025 (AP)
Harris warns ‘unhinged’ Trump is out for total power (CNN)
North Korea blows up roads near South Korean border as tensions soar (Al Jazeera)
Hurricane recovery disrupted by threats to relief workers (BBC)
North Carolina authorities arrest armed man after threats against FEMA workers (WP)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up 2 Points In Latest Survey As Race Is Nearly Tied (Forbes)
Harris losing ground to Trump in US presidential election, polls suggest (Al Jazeera)
CBS News Trump-Harris poll shows one election, two worlds: How information, beliefs shape tight campaign (CBS)
Kamala Harris' Chances of Beating Trump Plunge in Nate Silver Forecast (Newsweek)
How Trump may try to challenge the election results if he loses again (WP)
The Ground Game: Harris’s Turnout Machine vs. Trump’s Unproven Alliance (NYT)
Is the Constitution threatening democracy? UC Berkley law dean argues it is (SJMN)
Hezbollah drone attack on army base kills 4 Israeli soldiers and injures dozens (CNN)
Deadly Israeli strike sets tents ablaze on grounds of Gaza’s al-Aqsa hospital (WP)
The US will send an anti-missile system and troops to Israel. (Reuters)
The US is sending a missile defense system and troops to Israel to aid defense against Iran (AP)
The Real Story Behind ‘Saturday Night,’ the Movie About the Television Show That Changed Comedy Forever (Smithsonian)
‘Where we are today in biology AI is similar to GPT in 2020’: An interview with the CEO of Africa’s biggest AI startup (TechCrunch)
Google's new antitrust defense is AI (Yahoo)
Columbus Day Protests Once Again Erupt As Nation Struggles With Its Dark, Anti-Italian Past (The Onion)
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