For one semester at the University of Michigan I was an Econ major, but I got hung up on the Latin phrase meaning “all other things being equal,” which kept showing up in every economic model we studied.
When I somewhat rebelliously wrote a paper arguing that in real life all other things never stay equal, my professor was not amused and gave me a D. That was the end of my would-be major in economics.
I understood, of course, the concept of modeling and the need to control for random factors that could affect the outcome, since I’d also been a math major for a minute. But similar concerns about reality’s messiness compared to math’s formulaic purity derailed my academic trajectory in that subject as well. Quod Erat Demonstrandum if you will.
In the end, I found that I was better suited to working with words, so it was journalism for me, which of course is completely obsessed with the real world and all of its messiness. But wouldn’t you know it, the two subjects that have come up over and over again in my journalism career are economics and math.
Both are necessary today when trying to understand what is happening with Trump’s chaotic foreign adventurism. He tries to bully countries he considers weaker, but that will only backfire in the end. He has got both the math and the economics of what he is doing wrong.
His back and forth statements on the Iran War seem to be mainly about controlling the world’s oil. So was his adventurism in Venezuela and his future plan for Cuba. But the damage from his bombings to critical infrastructure in the Middle East will destabilize the energy markets for many months (maybe years) to come.
Meanwhile, his poll numbers continue to plummet.
Of this I am certain: all other things are most definitely not equal out there in the global economy. I may have gotten a D in Econ for telling the truth but Trump gets an F for lying.
HEADLINES:
US Senate passes funding package for homeland security that excludes ICE (Guardian)
Trump says U.S. to hold off for 10 days on hitting Iran energy sites (WP)
Witkoff Says 15-Point Plan Sent to Iran, Resulting in ‘Strong and Positive Messaging’ (WSJ)
Iran strikes defiant note, blocking Trump’s off-ramp for now (The Hill)
Trump’s Threats to Europe Put Its Leaders in a Double Bind Over Iran (NYT)
Gulf countries want Trump to end the war in Iran — but not yet, officials say (WP)
U.S. Stocks Have Their Biggest Drop Since Start of Iran War (NYT)
The U.S. and Iran Are Fighting a Massively Asymmetrical War (Atlantic)
Trump told his aides that he wants the Iran war to end within weeks and is ready to focus on the next big challenge, according to The Wall Street Journal. But despite Trump's reported wishes, ending the conflict is easier said than done. [HuffPost]
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is racing to pass a state budget and stave off early elections he would likely lose, with the war in Iran so far doing little to improve his standing in the polls. (Reuters)
Trump’s Signature to Be Added to U.S. Dollars, a First for a Sitting President (NYT)
At Pentagon Christian service, Hegseth prays for violence ‘against those who deserve no mercy’ (AP)
DHS despair takes hold on the Hill (Politico)
Trump Says He Will Order T.S.A. Agents Paid as Funding Deal Stalls (NYT)
Airports across the U.S. changing arrival time advice to travelers in wake of continued TSA chaos (NBC)
Latino Support for Trump Is Fading in California Farm Country (NYT)
RFK Jr. Is Losing His Grip on the CDC (Atlantic)
Trump Administration Begins Investigations Into Three MedicalSchools (NYT)
“Erasing the Lines”: How Settlers Are Seizing New Regions of the West Bank (Nation)
Olympic Committee Bars Transgender Athletes From Women’s Events (NYT)
Verdicts against Meta, YouTube validate concerns long raised by parents, child safety advocates (AP)
Big Tech critics hail ‘Big Tobacco moment’ in landmark social media verdict (CNN)
China bars executives at Meta-owned AI firm from leaving country (WP)
OpenAI puts erotic chatbot plans on hold ‘indefinitely’ (FT)
AI is just another technology Americans don’t like but can’t stop using (WP)
FDA Approves Lettuce That Can Be Remotely Detonated In Event Of Recall (Onion)
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