SANTA CLARA UNIVERSITY
As Barack Obama swept to a larger than expected victory in Wisconsin tonight, Hillary Clinton was sent a devastating message:
Attacking Obama causes us to turn against you.
As usual, I watched the candidates' speeches on TV in my hotel room tonight and then turned off the sound so I could escape the spinners.
One of my buddies active in the Obama campaign told me last night their internal polls predicted a 5-point advantage in Wisconsin as of yesterday. In fact, it appears he won by 17%.
My friends, whether you like math or not, this is a landslide, come from behind victory for Sen. Obama. In politics, this was a confirming result -- confirming trends we all recognized and eliminating any doubt about the margin of error in the various poll methodologies.
Not only is Obama the strong front runner now, Clinton probably faces a series of "last stand" primaries, especially in Ohio and Texas, and in Pennsylvania if the contest goes that much longer.
All Democratic constituencies break for Obama now except women, who understandably will be the last to desert Clinton's sinking ship.
There's still time for a turnaround, but now it depends on an Obama error, not on a Clinton surge. Looking at the trend lines among all major demographic groups, including women, Clinton already has lost.
So now it's Obama's nomination to lose.
So much of the individual decision about how to vote is private and personal that no poll yet invented can accurately gauge voter behavior as long as a contest remains dynamic and underdeveloped.
But, partially because this primary season has been so long, there's precious little development time left for anybody. The Republican race, regrettably in my opinion, is over. McCain has it wrapped up, and therefore the two most interesting candidates on the right, Huck and Paul, do not have any chance at all.
That's too bad. Blame it on Mitt.
McCain is already attacking Obama and I wonder if his advisors will learn in time what the Clintons have learned.
A candidate whose popularity rises when you attack him is a formidable candidate indeed. Go negative and you lose.
It will be revealing to watch the old warrior, McCain, who has a strong case for Americans frightened by the prospect of more terrorist attacks and the perception that the world is an increasingly dangerous place, try to compete against the younger, much more inspiring Obama.
He will attack, and in that way, I believe, he will lose.
It's a little early to come to conclusions, but, ladies and gentlemen, the next President of the United States is a black man, a former street organizer in Chicago, a globalist who just might have a shot at repairing our woeful image around the world. A person who might just be able to get a big enough mandate to unify this fractious nation and wage peace as aggressively as the fear mongers wage war.
That just might be something worth praying for.
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1 comment:
The Democrat Party badly needs to see Obama trounce Hillary convincingly in Texas and Ohio if it is to pull free of the very real danger of an ugly fight. The Clinton machine is becoming frantic and we know its potential from history. Some will tell you that his candidacy is not safe until you see Hillary's legs sticking out from under the house.
Obama seems to understand now that this race depends on his not giving it away, and there seems little likelihood he will. His wife is actually more of a wild card.
John McCain has fractured his conservative base. The party faithful are doing what they have always done, but some can see the damage they will personally suffer by having to fall in line. There are many bitterly disappointed conservative voters who will revolt. His candidacy will alter the Republican Party permanently.
Obama is a nice guy, so we hear from many who have been around him enough to know. Nice guys are not always presidential. His speeches are very shallow at this point, as is his Senate record. There's precious little to demonstrate the personal convictions required of a great president.
Coming out of the malaise of post Viet Nam, Watergate, and the economic challenges of the early 70s, the country shifted to a radically different face for leadership. We elected, then, a really nice guy, religious, honest, detached from the old politics of the time. Trouble is, he turned out to be among the worst presidents. It didn't take long for the euphoria to wear off after his inaugural.
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