Examining the daily tracking polls becomes part of the routine for journalists covering an election cycle. Click on the title of this post if you want to read the most detailed analysis of the Clinton-Obama race I've yet seen, by Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics.
Be forewarned, however, this is for serious statheads, those able to follow regression analysis and demographic segmentation techniques -- without inducing a return of the tortured nightmares of doing math homework!
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Today are the Potomac Primaries -- Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virgina -- and Obama anticipates three more victories, possibly by large margins. McCain may be losing ground in Virgina to Huckabee, however.
Josh Marshall's TPM , which is another of my daily surf spots, reports that the latest SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows how fast that Huck seems to be closing in on the presumptive GOP front-runner.
Here are yesterday's numbers, compared to the previous poll released last Friday:
McCain 48% (-9)
Huckabee 37% (+10)
If this trend carries through today's voting, Huck could pull to within a percentage point of two of McCain, in other words, within the margin of error.
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Finally, there is the daily dose at Rasmussen.
Today, the site reports: "Obama is the most popular candidate at the moment, viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 44%. Clinton is viewed favorably by 49% of Likely Voters nationwide, unfavorably by 49%. McCain’s is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 49%. Opinions about Clinton are more strongly held than opinions about either Obama or McCain."
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Where is all of this stuff going? McCain should win his party's nomination well ahead of the convention. Obama seems to have passed Clinton and may be on the verge of pulling away. Two big primaries, on March 4th in Texas and Ohio, are now Clinton's focus. Pennsylvania will be hotly contested; Puerto Rico could be decisive. What to do about the rogue delegates from Michigan and Florida is no longer an academic question.
Finally, for the Democrats, which way will the so-called Super Delegates go? These are elected officials and party insiders. There are hints in various press reports that some who were previously committed to Clinton are now switching to Obama.
The reason Democrats are worried about the party's lively split between these two candidates is this year's convention was moved back to after Labor Day. Obama's and Clinton's campaigns have a long time to beat up one another, and whichever candidate prevails would have precious little time to pull together a unified effort less than two months later in the general election.
We can expect growing pressure from party leaders to unify behind Obama if he dispatches Clinton in the remaining primaries. He's won the overwhelming number of contests and has pulled into the lead in delegates. He's got the 'Mo.
But she's digging in for a fight. The prospect of a long, ugly battle, with Bill Clinton out there mucking things up even more than he has to date, may present the most viable scenario whereby the Republicans could retain control of the White House come November.
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1 comment:
David,
Don't know that Rush Limbaugh is high on your list of primary campaign resources, so I thought I would pass this along -
Many in his audience have been asking him recently, including Crystal from Harrisburg PA, a lady who described herself as a “die hard Democrat” on today's show - “Rush, who do you think will win the Democratic primary?” His response is unique (at least, I've not heard of any other would-be pundits saying this yet). “No matter who wins the voting, Mrs. Clinton will be the Nominee”. He also observes that, if she loses the voting and manages to become the Nominee as he predicts, there will be a revolt.
Before you dismiss this notion out of hand, I would read his explanation posted here:
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/today.guest.html
Both primaries promise to be anything but dull this year.
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