For the first time this election cycle, Obama is pulling in over 50% of the voters in two influential tracking polls -- Rasmussen and Gallup. The RCP national average now has Obama with a 6.4% lead in the popular vote, 49.2% - 42.8%. It's too early to tell whether this is a somewhat delayed bounce from the Democratic Convention; a negative response to the stumbling start to the Republican Convention; or the decisions by the "undecideds" to break Obama's way.
I do not believe this trend will prove to be permanent. My experience says that McCain is due for his own bounce, assuming he handles his convention as well as Obama handled his. There is also a natural see-saw effect in public opinion polls that almost seems disconnected from the issues or events occurring on the campaign trail.
Today, for the first time this cycle, I went through a state by state electoral vote assessment, and came up with the most improbable of all outcomes -- a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. Whatever else happens, let's hope that does not come to pass. Just as in 2000, there appears to be a good chance that one party may win the popular vote while the other wins the electoral vote. Either tally could break either way.
There really are only about a dozen "swing states" and one candidate or the other has a 5% or larger margin in most of those. We just seem to be living in a time when the nation is politically divided right down the middle, at least when it comes to Presidential politics.
Congress is another matter. The Democrats are poised for big gains there, probably claiming a solid 10-vote or greater margin in the Senate and a very big majority in the House, where every seat is up for grabs.
Meanwhile, the coverage continues to revolve largely around the "values" and "character traits" of the candidates, as opposed to substantive issues. That's unfortunate, but unlikely to change any time soon.
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