As Europe teeters toward war, a war we all hope doesn't escalate into World War III, history reminds us that most great powers get their way until the moment they suddenly don’t and then the situation deteriorates quickly.
Russia is a case in point. Its former empire began crumbling when it lost the war in Afghanistan. The loss of control over many satellites of the old Soviet Union in both Europe and Asia followed, leaving the angry remnant of empire that is Vladimir Putin’s shrunken state of today.
After the imperial troops depart, assuming a new empire doesn’t ride right in, the newly freed countries usually struggle to establish some sort of independent status, as Afghanistan is doing now. Empires, dictators, strongmen always seem invincible — until they aren’t. That is the way of history. Although I’ve read every analysis of the Ukraine situation I can find, none have said what I believe will prove true: That if Putin goes through with this ill-conceived invasion, it will be the beginning of the end for his hold on power.
Like most autocrats who have been in place too long, Putin has developed an exaggerated sense of his personal power and may be dramatically underestimating his vulnerability. Therefore it appears he is about to walk into a trap. While restoring the Soviet empire might seem like an achievable goal to him, in reality that is not going to be tolerated by the West, let alone (in the end) China.
Therefore he proceeds alone and at his own great peril.
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Among today’s top stories is one that might be easy to overlook: “Five Afghan women who refuse to be silenced, from the BBC. Ultimately it is those who refuse to be silenced, of course, who inspire the next wave of change.
TODAY’s NEWS (62):
Russia has massed up to 190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine, U.S. says (Reuters)
U.S. Warns of Imminent Russian Invasion of Ukraine With Tanks, Jets, Cyberattacks (WSJ)
Russian troop build-up most significant since WW2 - US (BBC)
Ukrainian rebels evacuate civilians to Russia amid crisis (AP)
Pro-Russian separatists order mass evacuation of eastern Ukraine (Guardian)
Russia unveils nuclear drills as Putin blames Kyiv for ‘escalation’ in eastern Ukraine (Financial Times)
After 30 Years of Peace, Ukraine Crisis Shakes Europeans (NYT)
The West’s 2-part strategy for stopping an invasion (Politico)
Biden gathers allies for crisis talks amid spike in cease-fire violations (WP)
VIDEO: Blinken Challenges Russia to Pledge It Will Not Invade Ukraine (AP)
The Speech In Which Putin Told Us Who He Was (Politico)
Has Biden got inside Putin’s head? (Financial Times)
Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian rebels reported increased shelling in eastern Ukraine for a second straight day on Friday, an escalation that Washington and other Western allies say could form part of a Russian pretext to invade. (Reuters)
'Keep a cool head': Ukraine urges calm as the drumbeats of war get louder (Politico)
Stocks Fall as Ukraine Tensions Mount (WSJ)
Despite the threat of war, some Americans in Ukraine are staying put (NPR)
Five Afghan women who refuse to be silenced (BBC)
As BA.2 subvariant of Omicron rises, lab studies point to signs of severity (CNN)
Six African countries to begin making mRNA vaccines as part of WHO scheme (Guardian)
Omicron slammed essential workers. So the National Guard became teachers, janitors and more. (WP)
S. Korea keeps crowd limits as omicron causes 25-fold spike (AP)
Vulnerable to the Virus, High-Risk Americans Feel Pain as the U.S. Moves On (NYT)
Lower Omicron Efficacy Led to FDA Delay on Pfizer Shot in Young Kids (WSJ)
Illegal border crossings push Hong Kong Covid outbreak into China (Financial Times)
New study shows a significant increase in the risk of mental health disorders after COVID-19 (STLToday)
Newsom declares a Covid détente (Politico)
Surgeon general tests positive for Covid-19 (CNN)
Canadian police are poised to clear out hundreds of truck drivers from Ottawa who have staged a three-week-long protest against pandemic restrictions that has crippled the capital and prompted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to assume emergency powers. (Reuters)
Police move in on Ottawa protests and begin making arrests. (NYT)
Ottawa arrests two ‘Freedom Convoy’ protest organizers as police chief vows to ‘take back’ city (WP)
Americans are fleeing to places where political views match their own (NPR)
Retired conservative federal judge says helping Pence ahead of January 6 was 'the highest honor' of his life (Business Insider)
The never-before-told backstory of Pence's Jan. 6 argument (Politico)
N.Y. Attorney General Can Question Trump and 2 Children, Judge Rules (NYT)
A Manhattan judge called Donald Trump “just a bad guy” in a scathing rebuke to a lawyer arguing that the former president was being unfairly singled out for investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James because he's a Republican. State Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron ordered Trump and his children Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump Jr. to testify under oath in a civil investigation launched by James into Trump Organization business practices. [HuffPost]
GOP blockade of Fed nominees leads Democrats to fear for other vacancies, including Supreme Court (WP)
Fed adopts broad new rules barring officials from most trades (Politico)
3.7 million more kids are in poverty without the monthly Child Tax Credit, study says (NPR)
Beijing Olympics get political with Taiwan, Uyghur questions (AP)
Negotiating With Iran Isn't Working, But Biden Has a Better Option (Politico)
The Challenges of an Electric-Vehicle Revolution — The United States Postal Service could lead by example with its new fleet of delivery trucks. What’s standing in the way? (Atlantic)
The FBI is launching a digital currency unit for blockchain analysis and virtual asset seizure. U.S. regulators under President Joe Biden have been ratcheting up their scrutiny of the crypto industry in the wake of a series of high-profile cyber attacks last year. Ransomware groups often demand their fees in bitcoin. (Reuters)
Paid Google ads urging people to apply for fake payments were viewed more than 100 million times in five months — and stayed up until HuffPost began asking questions. The tech behemoth has pocketed more than $2.2 million from 1111 LLC since September to run ads that cruelly con its own users while flagrantly violating its own policies — and, experts say, federal law. [HuffPost]
A group representing publishers such as News Corp and National Public Radio wrote to leaders of the Senate Judiciary Committee to back two bills targeting Big Tech, including one that would open up smartphone app stores to more competition. (Reuters)
California bill would allow citizens to enforce weapons ban (AP)
Newsom announces Texas-style bill that would allow residents to sue gun makers (Politico)
‘So Much Damage Has Already Been Done’: The Fight to Reclaim the Blues (Rolling Stone)
Behold, This Is The First Asteroid Ever Discovered to Have Three Moons (Science Alert)
Can women do anything about being taken less seriously? (Political)
National forecasters are pessimistic about California escaping the drought this year. (Cal Today)
If We Ever Travel to Another Star, We’re Going Here — Astronomers may have found another planet around Proxima Centauri, the sun’s closest neighbor. (Atlantic)
MLB lockout talks reach new low with 15-minute meeting as Opening Day doomsday looms (NY Post)
MLB delays start of spring training games as labor negotiations continue (WP)
The people who grow ice (BBC)
Japanese researchers shed light on King Tut's dagger (NHK)
How Dating During The Pandemic Has Accelerated Relationships (BuzzFeed)
New York Times is blasted AGAIN for the 'worst Wordle ever' as fans fail to complete the puzzle even with four letters in the correct space because there were too many options for the missing one. (Daily Mail)
The man rethinking the definition of reality (BBC)
Rock Looked Way Cooler Wet (The Onion)
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