Hopeful Signs

Labor Day weekend traditionally marks the unofficial kickoff not only of the football season but the home stretch of political campaigns in an election year.

This, of course, is an election year.

It’s been an impressive summer for the Biden Administration and the Democratic Party, so much so that even Mitch McConnell now warns Republicans that their chances of gaining control of the Senate are dwindling.

Over the summer, the polling site 538 has tracked the slow rise of Democrats’ chances to retain a majority in the Senate from around 48% to 63% currently. Both 538 and McConnell blame a slate of relatively weak GOP candidates for this new political reality.

The GOP still has an overwhelming advantage to win the House (78%, according to 538) but it is noteworthy that that percentage is down from 83% just a few weeks ago.

So what is going on in American politics?

• The conservative Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade and the corollary attempt by Republicans to ban abortion is not playing well with most Americans.

• By contrast, Biden’s success at passing major legislation on climate change, taxes and health care is playing well. Biden’s approval rating has ticked back up from the low 30s to 40.7, according to 538.

• The Jan. 6 committee and various criminal probes are steadily eroding popular support for Trump.

• Election-denier Republican candidates backed by Trump are advancing through the primaries, which may not be good news for the GOP, as many may lose to Democrats in November.

• The net effect on the GOP is being still tied too closely to Trump may prove to be a negative factor electorally.

While it is way too soon to celebrate the decline of the demagogue, a Democratic victory in November would go a long way in preserving our collective chances at preserving the current tattered system of democracy we still possess. 

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