Happy Thanksgiving!

Moderation? Perhaps.

So Trump gave an interview to The New York Times yesterday, during which he appeared to pull back from some of his most extreme positions. This was something I speculated about back when I first predicted he would win the election, six months or more ago. Compared to many of my friends and colleagues, this is what would be considered a naive or unduly hopeful view.

But I've never been sold on Trump as a right-winger, any more than I ever considered Obama a left-winger. These are rhetorical terms the parties heave at one another, whereas most people who make a serious run for President tend to be centrists. Obama certainly is; we'll see about Trump.

He's starting to pull back from "jailing crooked Hillary," which was always a preposterous notion. He's pulling back from torture after speaking with a general. He's pulling back from threatening the press. He's got an "open mind" about climate change. His "wall" on the border sounds more like a fence.

Next he has to renounce the notions of registering Muslims and deporting millions of immigrants. He's also got to appoint some Democrats and moderates to his cabinet. That will no doubt happen.

Call me an optimist. That's what I've always been. I don't think Trump wants to be a dictator but the center of media attention. What's certain is he has certainly accomplished the latter.

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Difficult Days Ahead

It is a gray, rainy weekend here in San Francisco. I took a short walk this morning and the air felt fresh and clean.

I have been thinking a lot about whether we are entering an era of fascism. Many of my friends think so, but I doubt it.

Nevertheless, the evidence is there to support their view. Trump and his supporters have suggested that all Muslims be "registered," and some have said they should be put into concentration camps.

In case anyone thinks this is a Republican problem I would point out that Japanese-Americans were rounded up and interred under a Democratic president during World War 2.

All it may take would be one more terrorist attack on the homeland by a n Islamic extremist to provoke President Trump to enact such a plan.

The question is what would the rest of us do about that?

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Hopeful Things

Yesterday I met Manu Prakash, who has invented a very cheap paper microscope that allows anyone, particularly children in poor countries, to explore scientific subjects, especially micro-biology. He recently won a MacArthur Genius grant and was a guest on our TV news show, KQED Newsroom.

He's a delightful geek, who grew up in India and is now a bioengineer at Stanford. His microscope is basically built from origami and small lenses and, once assembled, can magnify tiny things by at least 150 x.

The cost of the paper miscroscope is 55 cents. I have been trying to figure out how to order it -- I think that will become possible on Monday via Kickstarter. I'd love to order a bunch of them for my grandchildren.

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Updates This Week

I picked up my youngest, Julia, from SFO, as she arrived after a weekend visit where she saw her grandparents and Bard outside New York. On the way to the city, I noticed the engine light come on in my car.

On Tuesday I dropped the car off at the mechanics.

Today my oldest son, Peter, dropped by in early afternoon to update me and discuss the job offers he has started receiving. We talked through negotiation strategies.

After that I got a bus (after a long wait) and pretty long walk to the mechanics to pick up the car, now fixed (for $600.)

Tomrrow I meet a group of students in the morning and my dentist in the afternoon.

***

At work my staff remains somewhat exhausted from the long, hard election effort. We are working to prepare them for the possibility of a major attack on our rights under the First Amendment by the Trump Administration.

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Wrong

I did not predict this election correctly. Although I'm a pretty good data analyst, it is always important to remember the old saying: "garbage in garbage out."

The data I relied on, polls from hundreds of sources, were completely wrong. They failed to understand how deeply the white working class people feel left behind by an economy that has benefited those of us on the coasts.

My origin area, the so-called 'rust belt', rose up and elected Donald Trump. That that was a ridiculous decision doesn't matter any longer. He is president-elect.

I was wrong.

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Best Guess: 312-226

I have read every article and studied every poll I can find. As of today, I believe Clinton will win the electoral and the popular votes by relatively comfortable margins.

Above is my current assessment of the all-important Electoral College tally. I think Clinton will win the popular vote by between 2.5 and 3 percent.

Both campaigns and the major media organizations will probably know the likely outcomes by mid-afternoon on Tuesday, due to exit polls. Everyone else will have to wait until the polls close in one of the four major time zones (sorry Hawaii and Alaska.)

The race probably will be called at 5, 6, 7 or 8 pm PT. I'm guessing 7, when certain mountain state polls are closed.

p.s. My electoral prediction for Clinton is 15 points higher than when I started this post, because I am now calling North Carolina for the Dems, based on new polls.

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