Three Men and the Sea

Many years ago I went with my brother-in-law Ty and an Australian friend named Graham

across Florida to the east coast, where we picked up a yacht to deliver for an elderly man on the west coast at Sanibel Island. 

It started out as an easy trip; the weather was good and the water was pretty calm off the coast — a little too calm.

As we worked our way along the coast in the Atlantic Ocean to the south, we debated whether to sail around Key West at the bottom of the state or cut through a canal to the large Bay of Florida and shave some hours off the route.

The weather forecast dictated our decision. A big storm was coming so we chose the shorter route.

As we made our way through the Bay, our rudder kept snagging on floats that had been placed there by fishermen. We would have to stop, free the rope from around the rudder, release the float and continue on our way. It was laborious work but also it kept interrupting our progress as the storm clouds approached.

We had hoped to make Sanibel before the storm but that was becoming only a remote possibility.

At dinner time, we pulled up one of the traps connected to a float wrapped around the rudder to discover several lobsters! Since I was not very skilled as a sailor my main role was to cook meals below decks. I also didn’t get seasick so it didn’t bother me to sway back and forth during the cooking process like it might some people. We had a delicious dinner of lobsters and beer.

By sunset the water was really getting rough, the winds were high and the sky filled with black and purple clouds. We could see flashes of lightning on the horizon. Soon we reached the coast and sailed out into the Gulf of Mexico.

The other two guys were almost always at the helm, except in the calmest waters but now that the going was getting rough, Ty took over as our captain. 

He is an excellent sailor and knew what he was doing as we raced at high speed way out into the Gulf. Due to the contours of the coastline, we had to go far to the southwest before we would reach reliably deep enough waters to turn and head north to Sanibel Island.

Ty knew the route pretty well but this was his first time sailing it in this boat or under these conditions. We had navigation maps and a radio and we knew that the storm was a pretty big one. As the first waves of rain started to fall in sheets, Graham and I retreated below, leaving Ty alone up top. We were dressed in rain slickers and hoods, but the rain beat against our faces when we were up top.

(To be continued.)

***

THE HEADLINES:

* Facebook to change rules on attacking public figures on its platforms. It will now count activists and journalists as "involuntary" public figures and so increase protections against harassment and bullying targeted at these groups, its global safety chief said in an interview this week. (Reuters) 

* UN Chief: Afghanistan Faces 'Make-or-Break Moment' -- Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also appealed to the Taliban to stop breaking its promises to allow women to work and girls to have access to all levels of education. Eighty percent of Afghanistan’s economy is informal, with women playing an overwhelming role, and “without them there is no way the Afghan economy and society will recover,” he said. (Military.com) 

* While girls across most of Afghanistan remain at home as their brothers go to high school, classes in some northern areas have been open for all students, highlighting regional differences starting to emerge two months after the Taliban seized power. (Reuters) 

* E.U. Pledges $1.15 Billion in Afghan Aid as U.S. Talks to Taliban -- Europe and America are offering stopgap humanitarian aid for a country on the brink of collapse, but larger decisions about the new Taliban government remain on hold. (NYT)

* World’s Growth Cools and the Rich-Poor Divide Widens -- The International Monetary Fund says the persistence of the coronavirus and global supply chain crisis weighs on economies. (NYT)

* U.S. to open Canada, Mexico land border crossings for fully vaccinated travelers (WP) 

* Inflation rises 5.4% from year ago, matching 13-year high (AP)

* U.S. Social Security benefits to rise by 5.9%, the most since early '80s (Reuters)

* The Mysterious Case of the COVID-19 Lab-Leak Theory (New Yorker)

* Far more police officers have died from Covid-19 than from any other work-related cause in 2020 and 2021. Even so, vaccines remain a hard sell. (Cal Today)

* Scientists at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said that Moderna had not met all of the agency's criteria to support use of booster dosesof its COVID-19 vaccine, possibly because the efficacy of the shot's first two doses has remained strong. (Reuters)

* J&J Booster Dose Increases Protection Against Covid-19, FDA Says (WSJ)

* F.D.A. Authorizes E-Cigarettes to Stay on U.S. Market for the First Time -- The agency approved three Vuse vaping products and said their benefits in helping smokers quit outweighed the risks of hooking youths. (NYT)

* More women are tuning out politics — a danger sign for Democrats in Virginia and beyond (WP)

* More than 100 countries pledged to put the protection of habitats at the heart of their government decision-making but they stopped short of committing to specific targets to curb mass extinctions. With plant and animal species loss now at the fastest rate in 10 million years, politicians, scientists and experts have been trying to lay the groundwork for a new pact on saving biodiversity. (Reuters)

* Neo-fascists exploit ‘no-vax’ rage, posing dilemma for Italy (AP)

* A Hong Kong university orders the removal of a memorial to the Tiananmen massacre (NPR)

* California set to become first state to ban sales of gasoline-powered lawn equipment (WP)

* The Alisal fire, which began on Monday near Santa Barbara, had consumed 21 square miles and was 5 percent contained as of Tuesday evening. (Cal Today)

* A new poll found that over half of Bay Area residents plan to permanently leave the area in the next few years. The cost of housing is propelling their departure. (SFC)

* 40 years ago, San Francisco lowriders organized to fight police harassment — and won (NPR)

* European and U.S. cities planning to phase out combustion engines over the next 15 years first need to plug a charging gap for millions of residents who park their cars on the street. For while electric vehicle sales are soaring in Europe and the United States, a lag in installing charging infrastructure is causing a roadblock. (Reuters)

* A ‘hidden epidemic of babies and kids being raised in cars’ -- Most homeless families in Silicon Valley sleep in cars, RVs and motels just blocks from major tech campuses for Google and Apple. With more than 48,000 people in Santa Clara in line for a housing voucher, officials have their hands full trying to find more stable shelter for kids and parents trying to survive. (SFC) * ‘Squid Game’ Is Slammed by Kim Jong Un’s Propagandists

 (WSJ) 

* ‘Squid Game’ strikes nerve in debt-ridden South Korea (AP)

* Man Spends Whole Day Dreading Fun Activity He Signed Up For (The Onion)

Correcting the Math on Covid

For me, one of the most frustrating aspects of aggregating media coverage of the pandemic has long been the poor understanding and interpreting of statistical data by journalists, politicians and certain policy makers.

Over and over, stories appear in major media outlets based on incomplete data or misinterpretations of what is actually happening with Covid-19.

This in itself would be bad enough, but unwise public health policies are resulting in some areas, especially with regard to children and schools.

A prime example is the absolutely terrible idea of mandating vaccines for school-aged children -- a concept gaining ground in some areas but utterly unsupported by a rigorous analysis of the available data.

Fortunately, three mathematically-literate writers -- Leslie Bienen, Eric Happel, and Tracy Beth Høeg -- have just published an excellent article called "How to Fix Our Broken Relationship With COVID Math" in the journal Persuasion.com.

Here are a few of their observations:

*  (Q)uarantine policies have removed thousands of “exposed” children and staff from school, even though very few—63 out of 30,000 quarantined, in recent data from Los Angeles United School District—subsequently tested positive. This is not a good way to balance harms and benefits.

* Specific demographic factors such as race and ethnicity, obesity, diabetes, and other co-morbidities make an enormous difference in determining risk of a bad COVID-19 outcome. But the single most important risk factor, age, is often relegated to a few short lines in too much news coverage. Downplaying the huge decreased risk of mortality in children compared with mortality risk in the elderly is simply not factual reporting.

* The actual risk of COVID-19 hospitalization for a child under 18 who has COVID-19 is less than 0.2% per infection, or less than 1% per diagnosed case by current estimates; but it is 23% for an adult 65 or older, and even higher for those over 65 with co-morbidities. 

* We often read that cases in children now make up over 20% of new infections. But news outlets often fail to point out that, as vaccination rates climb in older age groups and new infections fall in those groups, new cases in children will logically make up a greater proportion of all new infections.

* The data indicate that Delta is not significantly more harmful to children than previous variants.

* Road accidents and drowning kill many more children between 4 and 14 than COVID-19, yet we still let them get in cars and go to pools. Another example is that children are around 20 times more likely to contract COVID outside of school than in school. The media need to put COVID-19 numbers into perspective instead of quoting a stand-alone number that readers cannot adequately assess compared to other risks they are willing to accept.

*  Depression, obesity, eating disorders, opioid overdoses, and suicidality have all gone up markedly during the pandemic. The CDC’s own research showed recently that children who were already struggling with weight gain more than doubled their weight increase during the pandemic. The report pointed to school and sports closures as an important cause. This is one of many tragic consequences of our failure to take into account all harms, not just those caused by COVID-19, during this pandemic.

* Since May, when the Delta variant spread worldwide, much attention has been paid to the question of whether vaccines work against this new variant as well as they did against earlier variants. The data show that vaccine protection has certainly decreased, at least against mild or asymptomatic infection. But the degree to which vaccines still offer protection to the general population from severe disease requiring hospitalization is being underestimated.

* The fact that the vast majority of children have multiple greater threats to their health and well-being than COVID-19, and that those threats to health worsened as we tried to shelter children from any risk of COVID, should have been quickly integrated into our public health plans. Instead, school and sports closure policies in many cases aggravated these threats, while failing to have any major impact on controlling COVID-19 spread. The fact that vaccines are incredibly effective—way more so than is often reported—at preventing hospitalizations and severe disease should have been constantly and consistently emphasized and re-emphasized.

* The problem of inadequate and inaccessible local data could be remedied relatively easily. Every state should promptly release hospitalization and mortality data—the two most important outcomes when it comes to COVID-19—in the form of simple tables and graphs. These should be stratified by vaccination status, age, race and ethnicity, local employment categories, and important co-morbidities such as obesity, diabetes status, and heart disease.

(Thanks to my daughter Sarah for pointing me to this important article. And thanks to Jackie Ross for many of the Afghanistan articles I cite. Thanks to everyone who sends me suggestions or makes comments below.)

***

THE HEADLINES:

UN Chief: Afghanistan Faces 'Make-or-Break Moment' (Military.com)

* How to Fix Our Broken Relationship With COVID Math (Persuasion.com)

* Americans quit their jobs at a record pace in August (AP)

* Human-induced climate change has affected most of the population, new study shows -- Researchers used machine learning to analyze more than 100,000 studies of weather events and found four-fifths of the world’s land area has suffered effects linked to global warming. (WP)

* Boosters Are Complicating Efforts to Persuade the Unvaccinated to Get Shots --The number of eligible people still weighing whether to get a Covid vaccine has sharply dwindled, leaving an unvaccinated population that is mostly hard-core refusers. (NYT)

* Already, 18 weather disasters, each costing $1 billion or more, have hit the U.S. this year (WP)

* Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) issued an executive order banning COVID-19 vaccine mandates by any business, government office or other entity in the state. Abbott himself is fully vaccinated. But in Texas, only 52% of the population has been fully vaccinated. The state is still seeing an average of over 7,000 cases and more than 200 people dying from the disease each day. [HuffPost]

* A onetime associate of Donald Trump's former lawyer Rudy Giuliani heads for a trial today that could shed light on how campaign finance operates behind the scenes, including during the Republican former president's failed 2020 reelection bid. (Reuters)

* U.S. task force proposes adults 60 and older should not take daily aspirin to prevent heart disease or stroke (CNN)

* The City of London Is Hiding the World’s Stolen Money -- Together with its territories overseas, Britain is instrumental in a global game of deceit. (NYT) 

* Climate change is causing problems for puffins (NPR)

* The Trump nightmare looms again (WP)

* Italy's government is under growing pressure to dissolve the Forza Nuova neo-fascist group involved in violent weekend protests against a government drive to make the COVID-19 'Green Pass' mandatory for all workers. Since its foundation in 1997, Forza Nuova has repeatedly been accused of using violence against immigrants and police. (Reuters)

* ‘This Drop Came So Quickly’: Shrinking Schools Add to Hong Kong Exodus -- The Chinese territory is experiencing its biggest population drop in decades as residents flee political repression and a new “patriotic” curriculum. (NYT)

* To prevent the next pandemic, we must find the source of covid-19. China’s stonewalling is unacceptable. (Editorial Board/WP)

* Strong winds and dry, loose soil led to vast dust storms that shut down highways from the Sacramento Valley to the Mojave Desert. (SF Gate)

* Peat, plentiful in bogs in northern Europe, could be used to make sodium-ion batteries cheaply for use in electric vehicles, scientists at an Estonian university say. (Reuters)

* Inside the Massive and Costly Fight Against the Dixie Fire -- To battle the nearly one-million-acre Dixie fire, California launched a military-style operation. Some experts wonder whether that approach is sustainable. (NYT)

* Feds kill 8 pups in a wolf pack Idaho high-schoolers had been tracking for years, conservationists say (WP)

* Movie theaters are finally bouncing back from the pandemic, with solid turnout over the weekend for the latest James Bond spectacle. (Cal Today)

* Afghan minister wants good relations, needs more time on girls' education (Reuters)

* Lawmakers Press to Rescue Afghan Relatives of U.S. Service Members -- After a frenzied effort to evacuate Afghans who had worked with the U.S., members of Congress are now focusing on the stranded relatives of American troops. (NYT)

* Officials in Arcata, a town in Humboldt County, have decriminalized the use of psychedelic plants, including mushrooms and ayahuasca. (Lost Coast)

* The San Francisco Giants beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 1-0 Monday night to take a 2-1 game lead in the best of five playoff series. This is the first time the rivals have met in the post-season in their 130 year history. They also had the two best regular season records in MLB this year. (DW)

* Americans Demand New Form Of Media To Bridge Entertainment Gap While Looking From Laptop To Phone (The Onion)

The Morning of Day Number 570

Okay my count might be off by a day or two but 570 days is roughly how long it has been since the pandemic lockdown started in California, or a smidgeon over a year and a half ago.

Thinking back over those days, the progress we have made collectively is impressive. A large majority of adults are vaccinated; the infection rate for new Covid cases is the lowest in the nation and most of us have gotten back to pre-pandemic normal.

Best of all, it appears that barring a sudden change, the worst is behind us and Covid-19 will soon fade into the background as a seasonal threat roughly equivalent to the flu.

But the long-term effects of the pandemic are unknown. Although most of the people I know or encounter in the state appear to be readjusting to life as we knew it before this all started, there are a few notable exceptions.

Certain people seem to still be living in fear of Covid, shrinking from social contact, avoiding going out in public, and grasping at any piece of news that might suggest the danger remains high.

When I asked my 14-year-old grandson this weekend whether he sees any difference in his peers now they are back in school, he had an interesting response.

"Well, I don't think that any of my friends have changed. And I haven't changed. We are enjoying getting back together in person and it's great to be in high school. But there are a few kids who seem like they are really hanging back, like they're scared. They never take their masks off, even on the playground.

"But, I think," he added, "they are the people who would have been like that anyway, with or without Covid. I feel kinda sorry for them."

My grandson is neither shy nor aggressive socially. He is what I would call well-adjusted. He gets along with other boys and girls his age, is a very good student and an athlete (crew). As his remarks suggest, he is also keenly perceptive about the people around him.

I worry about those who necessarily isolate themselves too.

***

Another thought that occurred to me on this autumn morning of day 570 was how much our lives proceed not in great chunks of time like weeks or months but moment-to-moment, in little slices of time.

For me, writing is like that. It is the little details that strike me and propel the keystrokes that drive my stories forward. As I glance up at the vine sneaking across the trellis on my daughter's patio, the pattern created by the sunlight could be the arrangement of stars in the universe, the letters in a novel or the swarms of tropical fish darting across a healthy coral reef in the South China Sea.

That is where I taught my daughter, then three, how to snorkel off a resort island called Rawa many years ago. Then we were enjoying a moment like this, suspended in time and in saltwater, appreciating the beauty around us.

This new moment is different and like none other before it. I am anticipating a new day. And maybe it will be special.

***

* Merck & Co has applied for U.S. emergency use authorization for its tablet to treat mild-to-moderate patients of COVID-19, putting it on course to become the first oral antiviral medication for the disease. AstraZeneca asked U.S. regulators last week to grant emergency use authorization for its experimental drug as a preventative therapy, and today announced positive results from a late-stage study. (Reuters)

* How San Francisco's Clement Street Survived the Pandemic. (Cal Today)

* After the Taliban seized their school, Afghanistan’s all-female orchestra tried to flee. Only some escaped. (WP)

* Strange Quiet Arrives in Afghanistan After Decades of War (WSJ)

* A mynah bird squawks from a new cage in the French ambassador’s sunlit living room in Abu Dhabi, a far cry from its life as the pet of a young Afghan woman who has since found refuge in France. (AP)

* The United States said the first face-to-face meeting between senior U.S. and Taliban officials since the hardline group retook power in Afghanistan was "candid and professional" and that the U.S. side reiterated that the Taliban would be judged on their actions, not just their words. (Reuters)

* Taliban says US will provide humanitarian aid to Afghanistan (AP)

* Afghan Interpreter Who Helped Rescue Joe Biden in 2008 Escapes Afghanistan (WSJ)

* India, China army talks to defuse border tensions fail

 (AP)

* Inside Rikers: Dysfunction, Lawlessness and Detainees in Control -- With a staffing emergency disrupting the basic functions of the jail system, detainees have had free rein inside. (NYT)

* China has won AI battle with U.S., Pentagon's ex-software chief says (Reuters)

* Are workplace vaccine mandates helping or hurting? Maybe it’s the stick, not the carrot, that motivates people to finally get their COVID vaccines. (SFC)

* Facebook unveils new controls for kids using its platforms (AP)

* In search for covid origins, Hubei caves and wildlife farms draw new scrutiny (WP)

* ‘It’s Not Sustainable’: What America’s Port Crisis Looks Like Up Close -- An enduring traffic jam at the Port of Savannah reveals why the chaos in global shipping is likely to persist. (NYT)

* Ancient factory exposes secrets of winemaking in the Holy Land (Reuters)

* Dr. Anthony Fauci said kids can go outside and enjoy Halloween this year, thanks to vaccinations and a gradual ebbing of new COVID-19 infections after a devastating summer. “I think that particularly if you’re vaccinated, you can get out there," Fauci said, pointing out that trick-or-treating mostly takes place outdoors. The number of COVID-19 cases has been falling, but public health officials are still encouraging the approximately 68 million people who haven't been vaccinated to do so. [HuffPost]

* British police have announced they will not take any action against Prince Andrew after a review prompted by a Jeffrey Epstein accuser who claims that he sexually assaulted her. (AP)

* Defeats, inaction and compromise drag down Biden’s poll numbers -- Support for the president has sunk notably among key Democratic constituencies — Blacks, Latinos, women and young people. The discontent is particularly visible in Georgia, where Democrats had hoped demographic changes and mobilization efforts would offer a blueprint for expanding their electoral map. (WP)

* Something Shook New Hampshire. What Caused the Boom Is a Mystery. -- The U.S. Geological Survey said it had so far found no evidence of an earthquake in all of New England during the past seven days. (NYT)

* The most common ways the pandemic has shaken our mental health -- depression, anxiety, fear. (HuffPost)

* Now mainstream of party, liberal Democrats less willing to compromise with moderates (WP)

* Major Climate Action at Stake in Fight Over Twin Bills Pending in Congress -- Legislation aimed at infrastructure and social programs also includes big changes in energy, transportation and disaster preparation. They would amount to the most significant climate action ever taken by the United States. (NYT)

* When the Office Invades Your Sleep Through Your Dreams --Experts say the good news is your work dreams are trying to tell you something, so pay attention. (WSJ)

* A woman was given 4 days in jail for getting too close to grizzlies in Yellowstone (NPR)

* More Americans Concerned Illegal Immigrants Will Take Their Spot On Couch (The Onion)

Letter From Helmand.12: "Where Will We Find Refuge?"

[NOTE: This is the latest in a series of letters from an Afghan friend about conditions in the country since the Taliban assumed power in August. We are not disclosing his identity out of concerns for his safety.]

_______________________

Dear David:

Today I learned about the following story from one of my fellow countrymen. I have translated his story into English:

    "My neighbor Mohammad killed himself yesterday. He was a widower and single father to four girls, the oldest a teenager, who was disabled. Mohammad lived in a rental house across the courtyard from mine, and since his wife’s tragic death from a heart attack three years ago, had paid for his family’s expenses by portering in the streets. He was a feeble man, due to the strain of his life and his job. Still, he continued to work day and night so his girls could study. 

    "I saw him four days ago. Mohammad was a quiet man, and kept to himself, not speaking to anyone much besides me. I asked him how he was doing, and he sighed and said, “It goes on, Bachim  [my son], we who have not experienced anything good, it only goes on.” 

    "I asked again,  what has happened? And as I looked deep into  his sorrowful face, I could almost see the agony etched there. 

    '“Life is getting hard, I can no longer work. I'm 70 now,” Mohammand replied.  “I was hopeful for my daughter's future before,  but now nothing is colorful for me.” He stood up, took his wheelbarrow and walked away lamely. That was the last time I spoke with him.

    "When I woke up yesterday, walked over to the window to stretch and look out across the courtyard, Mohammad was the first thing I saw. He was suspended between earth and sky. He had hanged himself with the porter’s rope, the one that used to help him carry his load. I ran out across the yard to him, but he was no longer breathing. A moment later, I was surrounded by his poor girls, already mourning."

(End of translation.)

When I heard yesterday about the attack in a Hazara Shia mosque in Kunduz, a crippling disappointment overwhelmed me. I felt the despair I knew Mohammad shared. I asked myself,  when will these massacres, miseries and mourning periods end? How long must we watch the killing of our loved ones, sometimes at their own hands? 

Where will we find refuge? 

I didn’t come up with any answers. There is nothing new to say. Frustration and despair are a default state of mind. Poverty is rampant. The teachers and employees have not been paid salaries for three months. How long can they continue? We are a people without hope.

***

Some of my friends may wonder why I continue to publish these plaintive letters from my young Hazara friend in Afghanistan. What are we accomplishing?

I have no ready answer. Perhaps the only explanation I can offer is the one all writers will confess: "You never know who may be listening."

Perhaps someone who reads my friend's letter will forward it to somebody else. And that person to another. Eventually, perhaps someone in a position to actually do something about the situation in Afghanistan will take an interest.

It might be an elected official, a foreign aid worker, a human rights activist, a government negotiator, a fellow journalist inside a major media organization.

As long as there is a chance that someone with more influence than me hears my friend's reports, there is a tiny point of hope that his words will not have been written in vain.

***

THE HEADLINES:

* Severe Drought Endangers Millions as Afghan Economy Collapses -- One of the worst droughts in decades is compounding the economic crisis that deepened when the Taliban overthrew the previous government. (WSJ) 

* Moderna, Racing for Profits, Keeps Covid Vaccine Out of Reach of Poor -- Some poorer countries are paying more and waiting longer for the company’s vaccine than the wealthy — if they have access at all. (NYT)

* The national rate of Covid-19 infections is declining. (CNN)

* An energy crisis is gripping the world, with potentially grave consequences -- Advocates for renewable energy say the global crisis shows the need to move further away from coal, gas and oil as prices for those commodities spike. Their critics contend just the opposite — that wind and solar have been tested and came up lacking. (WP)

* ‘Starting a Fire’: U.S. and China Enter Dangerous Territory Over Taiwan -- The self-ruled island has moved to the heart of deepening discord and rivalry between the two superpowers, with the potential to ignite military conflagration and reshape the regional order. (NYT)

* Australia mulls measures making social media giants responsible for defamatory postings (Reuters)

* Tensions persist between legacy of Columbus, native people (AP)

* Weak jobs report shows how Fed misdiagnosed delta variant’s toll on economy (WP)

* In the quest for a liver transplant, patients are segregated by prior alcohol use (NPR)

* A Language Bill Deepens a Culture Clash in Quebec -- The government calls the new measure necessary for the survival of French, while critics say it stigmatizes bilingualism and is bad for business. (NYT)

* Abdul Qadeer Khan, a controversial figure known as the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb, died Sunday of COVID-19 following a lengthy illness, his family said. He was 85. (AP)

* U.S. holds first direct talks with Taliban since Afghan withdrawal (WP)

* When Child Care Costs Twice as Much as the Mortgage -- President Biden’s social policy legislation aims to address a problem that weighs on many families — and the teachers and child care centers serving them. (NYT)

* The climate crisis is spawning weird ideas to fix it. They might be all we have. (WP)

* Unclear What Coworker With Banana On Desk All Day Waiting For (The Onion)