Tuesday, November 30, 2021

As Threats Mutate

 As I try on a daily basis to wrap my mind around the challenges facing us if we are to better humanity’s chances for survival, much of it boils down to technology — both biotech and cyber tech.

By some measures, we have advanced further and faster in the past half-century in these realms than all of the millennia preceding, so much so that we may also have outpaced our intellectual ability to keep up with those changes.

But we know our brains are capable of much more than we demand of them, so the problem now boils down to focusing on which concrete steps can we take at present to harness technology to solve the problem of our impending extinction as a species.

There *must* be a solution to climate change, for example, as our brains tell us in our most optimistic moments — we just have to imagine that solution and implement it. Then again, the global nature of a problem like planetary climate change makes it seem impossible to grasp in a form that yields those solutions — other than escape.

And escape, of course, is precisely what the billionaire-financed space travel and ideas of colonizing other planets are predicated on — escape for the few, the rich, the selfish — forget about the great unwashed masses left behind to deal with the mess which the few, the rich, and the selfish have so prodigiously profited from.

In this context, the battles over science vs. fantasy and truth vs. fiction come down in our brains to synthesizing the opposites. Thus science fiction predicts and (at least in Hollywood) solves many of our greatest problems, just as literary non-fiction solves many of the issues facing a conscientious writer trying to communicate essential truths in this most ambiguous of eras.

Ambiguity — or what might better be termed the state of not knowing — is a very difficult state to maintain as we struggle with these challenges. Yet that is where we find ourselves.

A litmus test in the age of not knowing is where do you come down — with pessimism or optimism. Our brains allow either option; only one, however, may lead us to solutions. And that is the hard one to sustain.

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TUESDAY’S HEADLINES:

Monday, November 29, 2021

Omicron is not the Problem

 The Omicron variant will likely continue to dominate the news cycles for a bit, but over the longer term, it will probably prove to be just another aftershock from the main Covid-19 crisis, and not a new crisis in its own right. 

The basic framework remains: 

  • The variant will quickly span the globe due to unvaccinated populations.

  • But the vaccines developed to protect against Covid will either contain Omicron or will be updated quickly by manufacturers to do so.

  • The main health damage from this variant, therefore, will be among the unvaccinated in the U.S. and overseas.

  • The mental health impacts of this unending pandemic will last for years.

But the political controversies spawned by the pandemic may prove to be even more lasting and damaging than the health crisis. That’s because I believe there is a connection between the global plague that threatens everyone and the rise of extremism. 

It is hard to prove that connection; after all, Trump was already President when the pandemic hit, but Covid may well have accelerated a process that was already underway.

Now it appears that extremist beliefs will continue to be on the rise in a world where a majority of the global population (about 53 percent from estimates I’ve seen) already lives under anti-democratic rulers. 

And it would be difficult to over-emphasize the dangers of increasing authoritarianism in the specific communications environment we live in today. Authoritarians use the existing media systems, including social media, more effectively than democratic leaders can do.

Therefore, disinformation, conspiracy theories and outright lies (like Trumps’a claims about the 2020 election) will continue to compete successfully with honest, verified information here and around the world for the foreseeable future.

In that sense, the global heath crisis is ultimately also an informational crisis. The lack of strong journalistic institutions to wage battle against the propagandists is a key weakness of this particular moment in history.

We need to change that. We need a strong new international commitment to a free press, free speech, and the primacy of accuracy over lies if we are to withstand the authoritarian aftershocks of Covid-19. But how can we possibly accomplish that?

For now, I’m arguing that freaking out about Omicron is essentially a distraction from the main issue of our time — political extremism. If we are going to freak out about something, let it be that.

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MONDAY’s NEWS:

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MONDAY’s LYRICS

“The Truth”

Song by Jason Aldean

Songwriters: Brett James / Ashley Monroe

Tell 'em all I'm on vacation
Say I went to visit friends
That you ain't heard or seen from me in quite a while
When they ask you where I've been
Tell 'em I'm out on the west coast where it don't ever rain
And that I'm probably doing fine

Just don't tell 'em I've gone crazy
That I'm still strung out over you
Tell 'em anything you want to
Just don't tell 'em all the truth
Yeah don't tell 'em all the truth

Tell 'em all I'm out in Vegas
Blowin' every dollar I ever made
Tell 'em that I must be into something bad for me cause
I sure lost a lot of weight
Tell 'em I'm out on the road with some old rock and roll band
Living like a gypsy can

Just don't tell 'em I've gone crazy
That I'm still strung out over you
Tell 'em anything you want to
Just don't tell 'em all the truth
Yeah don't tell 'em all the truth

The truth is that I'm asking you to lie
And we both know that it ain't right
But if you ever loved me please
Have some mercy on me
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah

Tell 'em anything you want to
Just don't tell 'em all the truth
Yeah, don't tell 'em all the truth
I still need you
Yeah, that's the truth
I still love you
Baby, that's the truth

Sunday, November 28, 2021

The Rhythm of Technology

 The Omicron variant is the latest reminder that the virus causing Covid-19 will continue to mutate as long as significant pockets of unvaccinated people remain to harbor it.

It’s time for everybody who has not yet been vaccinated to get the shots. Enough data is in; there are no significant long-term negative effects that would justify further resistance. 

Vaccination has never been an individual choice. Vaccination is about the whole of humanity. Mandates are fine. In fact, they are appropriate.

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I want to give a shout out to fellow Substack author Ted Gioia, whose piece “How Music Created Silicon Valley” documents how the popular demand for music led to many of the technological breakthroughs that so define our age.

From the early successes of Hewlett-Packard, the transistor radio, Sony, Disney, RCA or the little known role played by Bing Crosby to the iPod and the ascendance of Apple as one of the world’s biggest companies, music has long the core driver of tech changes.

Of course, it is not the songwriters or even the singers who have profited from these historical developments but the massive companies — Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and Google — that sit at the apex of the global economy. 

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I rarely write about sports these days but my earliest journalism was sports reporting while a student at the University of Michigan 50+ years ago. In fact I was Sports Editor of the student-run newspaper, The Michigan Daily in 1968-69.

So it was no surprise that early Saturday I was watching the annual revival of the intense football rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State. Both teams entered the game with 10-1 records.

It was a chilly snowy day in Ann Arbor but the weather didn’t interfere with a huge celebration when Michigan won the game 42-27 to advance to the Big Ten title game next Saturday.

As Michigan fans flooded the field after the game, my youthful passion returned with a rush and I cheered out loud. Three of my grandsons watched the final moments and the celebration with me.

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Sunday’s Headlines:

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Sunday’s Lyrics: 
"The Victors" 

Now for a cheer they are here, triumphant! 
Here they come with banners flying, 
In stalwart step they're nighing, 
With shouts of vict'ry crying, 
We hurrah, hurrah, we greet you now, Hail! 

Far we their praises sing 
For the glory and fame they've brought us 
Loud let the bells them ring 
For here they come with banners flying 
Far we their praises tell 
For the glory and fame they've brought us 
Loud let the bells them ring 
For here they come with banners flying 
Here they come, Hurrah! 

Hail! to the victors valiant 
Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes 
Hail! Hail! to Michigan 
The leaders and best! 
Hail! to the victors valiant 
Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes 
Hail! Hail! to Michigan, 
The champions of the West! 

We cheer them again 
We cheer and cheer again 
For Michigan, we cheer for Michigan 
We cheer with might and main 
We cheer, cheer, cheer 
With might and main we cheer! 

Hail! to the victors valiant 
Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes 
Hail! Hail! to Michigan, 
The champions of the West!

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Saturday Headlines

 

Friday, November 26, 2021

Covid Aftershocks

So once again there is a new Covid-19 variant, B.1.1.529, that has been detected in Southern Africa, and it has been described as “heavily mutated.” The good news about this, if there is any, is that it was detected early and therefore may be easier to contain.

The bad news is we don’t know much about it yet, so the markets are reacting negatively. As I write this, the stocks app on my cellphone is all red as investors scurry for safety.

If the first wave of Covid represented a major earthquake with Wuhan, China as its epicenter, the subsequent emergence of dangerous variants are the aftershocks that remind us that the terror could return, that we are not necessarily free of this scourge yet.

The problem, from a global perspective, is only a tiny proportion of the populations of the poorer parts of the world are vaccinated, giving the virus plenty of hosts to continue mutating and adapting to the vaccines deployed against it.

I’ve long assumed that humans will win this war, ultimately, but like in the final stages of any war, the enemy can still achieve major victories and inflict major damage before VC Day. (Victory over Covid)

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FRIDAY’s HEADLINES: