Let It Be

After pouring 200,000 words or more into this Facebook page, I am not sure I have anything left to say. But I'll try.

A great political journalist, and an old friend, asked me tonight how the dark sense of violence looming over this election compares with the mood in the late 1960s, when I was a young reporter.

I was still in college at the time in Ann Arbor, where  the primary organizing force behind the anti-war movement, SDS, distributed the Port Huron Statement. As I covered organizing meetings, I witnessed the nascent violent faction of that movement, the Weather Underground, split away. Soon afterward, it began its campaign of bombing in the hope of inspiring a revolution.

Those bombs went off for years, people died, passions grew to the boiling point, but the revolution never came.

Ultimately, domestic peace returned and the progressive social values of the student movement took hold in the larger culture. 

But in certain segments of the American population, the idealistic vision of a multiracial society where the sexes were equal, where homophobia was eliminated, where the environment was preserved, where poverty was eliminated did not take root.

Rather, this segment, dominated by poorly educated, rural white people awaited someone who could give voice to their sense of grievance.

Donald Trump is that man.

The problem is his answer to their concerns is to foment hate, racism, and violence, which in no way improves their lives. As his campaign closes, he has escalated his verbal assaults and some of his followers are acting accordingly. 

Thus the impending sense of doom hanging over the land.

What failed for the left in the 60s will fail for the right today. The great mass of people in this country are moderate and peace-loving. And we have to assume they will vote to reject demagoguery and hate.

But if that assumption is wrong, and Trump wins, we are in for one hell of a lot of trouble.

***

As for the news, let her rip: 

*There is an unusual feeling of foreboding in America. U.S. politics so revolves around dueling visions of the country that tension always steeps before presidential elections. But it's especially raw this election eve. People on both sides of the political divide fear that the country they love will be lost if their preferred candidate does not win on Tuesday. Liberals believe another term for Donald Trump would so badly erode democratic institutions and guardrails that there would be no going back. Trump and conservative media polemicists tell his supporters that the country will be consumed in flames and taken over by radical socialist thugs if he loses to Joe Biden. (CNN)

* Economy faces big strains just as Washington could be paralyzed after election -- Political paralysis looms over a turbulent period for the United States amid a spike in coronavirus cases and the expiration of emergency federal aid. (WashPo)

* Federal judge rejects GOP challenge to invalidate nearly 127,000 votes in Democratic-leaning Houston (CNN)

 * Judge rejects Republican efforts to halt early vote counting in Las Vegas (CNN)

* Tensions high at rival Michigan rallies (NHK)

* Trump promises court fight over Pennsylvania absentee votes (AP)

* Polling places are latest front in battle over face masks (AP)

* Biden leads Trump by double digits nationally, USC poll suggests (LAT)

* FL B+4, MI B+7, PA B+6, NC B+1, CO B+8, IA Even, TX T+4, MT T+4... (Drudge)

* Michigan sees spike in African Americans buying guns (Reuters)

* Police respond to multiple incidents during 'Trump Train' mobile vehicle rally in Richmond (CNN)

* Why Trump Can’t Afford to Lose -- The President has survived one impeachment, twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct, and an estimated four thousand lawsuits. That run of good luck may well end, perhaps brutally, if Joe Biden wins. (New Yorker)

* Now, More Than Ever, Election Week Is a Time for Patience -- The rush to reach a conclusion that increasingly has marked American election nights needs to be suspended because of the way America is voting this year. (WSJ)

* Polarized electorate, mail-in ballots could spark post-election legal 'fight of our lives' (WSJ)

* Europe is on the verge of a medical crisis, with intensive care units filling rapidly (WashPo)

* The Philippines left devastated after being hit by the world's strongest storm this year (WashPo)

* Clorox Profit More Than Doubles -- The household-supplies producer saw continuing gains in its recent quarter from purchases of wipes, disinfectants and personal-care items during the Covid-19 pandemic. (WSJ)

* 100 million people have already voted. As a nation, we'll probably hit 150 million. (DW)

***

All we are saying is give peace a chance -- John Lennon

And when the night is cloudy there is still a light that shines on me
Shine until tomorrow, let it be
I wake up to the sound of music, Mother Mary comes to me
Speaking words of wisdom, let it be

--John Lennon / Paul McCartney

-30-

From Sea to Sea

So it's come down to this. With storefronts and office buildings boarded up and shut down and even a new fence surrounding the White House, America awaits uneasily the results of the 2020 presidential election.

The incumbent is strutting and spewing his messages of hate in the final hours before what all indications suggest will be his defeat by a large margin.

He whips up his frenzied crowds while the mentally unstable among them load their guns, attach their flags to pickup trucks, and head out on the road, hunting...

What are they hunting?

Democracy.

The fact is there are not enough guns, flags or pickup trucks to change the will of the American people. And what they fear today is that Joe Biden is going to win this election and Donald Trump is going to lose.

It's time for the cooler heads to prevail. No one should want to tear this country apart. The nation may be tattered around the edges but it will survive the attempts of this demagogue to destroy it.

The fringes will singe but the center will hold.

***

The news:

* Federal authorities are expected to put back into place a "non-scalable" fence around the entire perimeter of the White House on Monday as law enforcement and other agencies prepare for possible protests surrounding the election, a source with knowledge of the matter confirmed to CNN.The fence, the same type that was put up during protests this summer, will encompass the Ellipse and Lafayette Square. It will go down 15th Street to Constitution Avenue and then over to 17th Street. The fence will then run up to H Street and across by Lafayette, and then come down 15th Street, the source said. NBC News was first to report the new fencing. The Secret Service did not respond to a request for comment. (NBC/CNN)

* Democrat Joe Biden declared President Donald Trump won't succeed with a plan to “steal” the election by prematurely declaring victory on election night if early counts show him ahead, despite a mountain of mail-in votes that may take days or weeks to count. Trump reportedly told those close to him he plans to declare victory if the results show him leading. That plan, Axios' Jonathan Swan reported, would go forward even if millions of ballots have yet to be counted. [HuffPost] 

* Ahead of Election, Police Prepare for Violence and Disruption -- Many law enforcement officials have attempted to inject calm while warning of dire consequences for those who try to disrupt voting. (NYT)

* Boarded-Up Windows and Increased Security: Retailers Brace for the Election -- Stores are making plans for how to deal with potential civil unrest stemming from Tuesday’s election. (NYT)

* In Dash to Finish, Biden and Trump Set Up Showdown in Pennsylvania -- Both campaigns were intensifying their efforts in a state increasingly critical to victory, as the candidates and their surrogates planned a final blitz to make their closing arguments. (NYT)

* Inspiring Black Voters Is Key to Biden’s Prospects in Florida -- Democratic groups are pouring money into get-out-the-vote efforts in Black precincts to try to increase turnout from 2016, in a state that is critical to President Trump’s re-election chances. (NYT)

* Trump openly promoted people carrying out political violence on his behalf over the weekend. The president tweeted in response to reports that the FBI is investigating a caravan of Trump supporters surrounding a Biden campaign bus in Texas, nearly driving it off a stretch of highway, and ramming the car of a campaign worker. “In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong,” Trump tweeted. “The FBI & Justice [Department] should be investigating the terrorists, anarchists, and agitators of ANTIFA, who run around burning down our Democrat run cities.” "Trump trains" are jamming roadways in several states. [HuffPost]

* Dishonesty Has Defined the Trump Presidency. The Consequences Could Be Lasting. -- Whether President Trump wins or loses on Nov. 3, the very concept of public trust in an established set of facts necessary for the operation of a democratic society has been eroded. (NYT)

* How Americans surmounted a pandemic and dizzying rule changes so their voices would be heard -- A record 93 million voters cast their ballots by Sunday — an enormous turnout that seemed inconceivable at the start of 2020. (WashPo)

* The U.S. Postal Service must remind senior managers they must follow its “extraordinary measures” policy to expedite ballots ahead of Tuesday’s presidential election, a federal judge ruled. U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan’s order on Sunday, to which the USPS agreed, said the postal service must reinforce its “special procedures” to ensure it “delivers every ballot possible by the cutoff time on Election Day.” This comes as theTexas Supreme Court denied a Republican effort to throw out nearly 127,000 ballots. [Reuters]

* Poll of Polls: Biden wins 90%, Trump wins 10%. (538)

* Electoral College: Biden 368, Trump 170. (Electoral-Vote.com)

* At Least 19 People Killed In Attack On Kabul University -- Gunmen stormed the campus where a book fair had drawn senior Afghan and Iranian officials, though it wasn't immediately clear whether the group was the intended target of the attack. (NPR)

* How the Wealthy World Has Failed Poor Countries During the Pandemic -- Despite pledges for debt relief and expanded programs, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have delivered meager aid, say economists. (NYT)

* In San Francisco, Virus Is Contained but Schools Are Still Closed  -- A debate over reopening classrooms pits the mayor against the Board of Education, cutting across class, party and racial lines. (NYT)

* Swiss city of Geneva locks down as COVID surges (Reuters)

***

Oh beautiful, for spacious skies
For amber waves of grain
For purple mountain majesties
Above the fruited plain

But now wait a minute, I'm talking about
America, sweet America
You know, God done shed his grace on thee
He crowned thy good, yes he did, in brotherhood
From sea to shining sea

-- Ray Charles

Put That Sucker on Spin

It was a clear chilly morning, the day after Halloween. The girls were up early (hello, daylight savings) and were eating their candy.

The boys, after a late night of balloons, knives and a campfire, were fast asleep. No school this day.

I was sipping a cup of coffee. Just another morning in America.

Well, maybe not just *any* other day. Very soon now the election results will come in. One more day. On the eve of end of this bitterly fought campaign, my mind goes back 20 years to another deeply contested battle for the White House.

Here are the words spoken by the winner and the loser that time around.

George W. Bush's victory speech in 2000:

"Our country has been through a long and trying period, with the outcome of the presidential election not finalised for longer than any of us could have ever imagined. Vice president Gore and I put our hearts and hopes into our campaigns; we both gave it our all. We shared similar emotions. I understand how difficult this moment must be for vice president Gore and his family. He has a distinguished record of service to our country as a congressman, a senator and as vice president. This evening I received a gracious call from the vice president. We agreed to meet early next week in Washington and we agreed to do our best to heal our country after this hard fought contest...I was not elected to serve one party, but to serve one nation. The president of the United States is the president of every single American, of every race and every background. Whether you voted for me or not, I will do my best to serve your interests, and I will work to earn your respect."

Al Gore's concession speech in 2000:

"Just moments ago, I spoke with George W. Bush and congratulated him on becoming the 43rd president of the United States...Now the U.S. Supreme Court has spoken. Let there be no doubt, while I strongly disagree with the court's decision, I accept it. I accept the finality of this outcome which will be ratified next Monday in the Electoral College. And tonight, for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession. I also accept my responsibility, which I will discharge unconditionally, to honor the new President-elect and do everything possible to help him bring Americans together in fulfillment of the great vision that our Declaration of Independence defines and that our Constitution affirms and defends."

***

Can we hope for a similar graciousness this time around?  Probably not, though I'm sure Biden will try. Instead, I'm afraid at least some trouble lies ahead. Maybe a lot of trouble.

It is shameful that Trump inspires his supporters to caravan around in pickup trucks with flags, guns at the ready. 

Why? I have seen these types of images before. In Afghanistan, where jihadists of the Taliban rode through villages in similar trucks, with similar flags and similar guns. 

They had despotic leaders who inspired them and the destruction they wrought ruined a country for generations and the violence continues to this day. Is America to suffer a similar convulsion? 

I dove through one of these Trump caravans on I-880 recently as it tried to make a show of strength here in the hyper-liberal Bay Area. The most notable feature of that caravan was that the drivers were all taking selfies as they rolled down the highway.

Local people pretty much politely ignored the scene except for one old guy. His message to them was through his middle finger.

While all of this noise is going on, most polls are holding steady for Biden but as the top news story below indicates, there are some hints that the race may be closer than expected.  Like every other analyst, I'll be reading polls right up until the last minute, to see if there are any other signs that Trump is making up ground late in the race.

If he does, that means his increasingly shrill, racist appeals are resonating with his base. He is attacking Democrats, reporters, Moslems, immigrants, black people -- anyone he perceives as the kind of "un-American" person his supporters can be incited to hate.

For that reason alone, this is the ugliest political campaign in U.S. history. I fear the scars will be with us for a long time to come.

*** 

* A new Des Moines Register/Selzer and Co. poll from Iowa likely voters has President Donald Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by a 48% to 41% margin. If it is correct, Trump is in a far better position than assumed, and we could be in for a much closer race than many expect. (CNN)

* Election at Hand, Biden Leads Trump in Four Key States, Poll Shows -- Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and, by a wide margin, in Wisconsin, according to a Times/Siena College poll. (NYT)

* Biden leads Trump, 52% to 42%, among registered voters in a new national WSJ/NBC News survey. However, the poll finds the race tightening when the landscape is narrowed to a set of 12 battleground states. (WSJ)

* Post-ABC polls: Biden has slight lead in Pennsylvania; Florida a toss-up (WashPo)

* Why You Can’t Rely on Election Forecasts -- Voting models are not as scientific or certain as they may seem. (NYT)

* Trump supporters seen blocking traffic on a New Jersey highway and a New York bridge (CNN)

* Their First Try Backfired, but Giuliani and Allies Keep Aiming at Biden -- The former New York mayor’s dirt-digging effort on Hunter Biden in 2019 ended with President Trump’s impeachment. Now he is back with new associates. So far it is not going exactly as planned. (NYT)

* Texas Supreme Court denies GOP-led petition seeking to invalidate nearly 127,000 votes in Houston area (CNN)

* Only 4 states trending down in Covid-19 cases (CNN)

* Cut Off From the World Again, Australia Now Finds Silver Linings -- After chafing against their isolation for so long, Australians these days are finding island life a privilege when pestilence lies beyond. (NYT)

* SNL tells Halloween horror story warning that Trump could win reelection (WashPo)

* An Ancient Hill and Forgotten Dead: Afghanistan’s Haunted Outpost -- Its name was Observation Post Rock. The outpost is the backdrop for a ghost story, and is known for strange voices, radio static and the creeping fear of being watched. (NYT)

* ‘Jim Crow, Indian style’: How Native Americans were denied the right to vote for decades (WashPo)

* Black Lives Matter faces test of its influence in election (AP)

* Kentucky Police Training Quoted Hitler and Urged ‘Ruthless’ Violence -- A training slide show that urged officers to “always fight to the death” is no longer used but has raised an outcry in a state that has struggled with police violence. (NYT)

* Another election night nears, with trepidation replacing hope (WashPo)

* It Has to be Biden, Editorial (The Economist)

* Covid-19 deaths are soaring, and Jakarta’s graveyards are running out of space (WashPo)

* Race Tightening Slightly. Electoral Votes: Biden 350, Trump 170, Tied 18. Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 46, 1 tossup. (Electoral-Vote.com)

***

I love your song, Miranda Lambert, and I'm pretty sure I'm in love with you too, but will this election actually all come out in the wash?

'Cause it'll all come out, all come out in the wash
It'll all come out, all come out in the wash
Every little stain, every little heartbreak, no matter how messy it got
You take the sin and the men and you throw 'em all in
And you put that sucker on spin

-- Miranda Lambert (country singer/songwriter)

-30-

Killer on the Road

If you're having trouble remaining calm and rational as this election draws to its climax, be assured you are not alone.  One can be forgiven for feeling anxious as Trump's ever-escalating effort to mobilize the white grievance vote destabilizes the country.

If you fear your BP may be spiking, you can get one of those handy DIY units.

We are already seeing illegalities by Trump-inspired mobs on our streets (see news summaries below), and what is playing out right before our eyes is a chaotic series of right-wing assaults on our democratic institutions. 

Trump's lieutenants are intimidating voters who oppose ihr Anführer by executing voter suppression maneuvers in key states and mobilizing the armed crazies who call themselves "militias."

It is time to prepare for the worst.These flare-ups of violence are evidence of no less than an attempted coup by a sitting President.

In the haunting words of the brilliant former world chess champion Garry Kasparov: 

"After four long years of chaos and lies from the Trump administration, it's time to prepare for the worst, even as we hope for the best. Every time we thought he could stoop no lower, that there were no boundaries of legality or decency left for him to violate, he has outdone himself. 

"After praising dictators, attacking veterans, demeaning women, discrediting our democracy, and surrendering to a raging pandemic, we can only hope that Trump has also undone himself. We cannot know exactly what Trump will do in these final days, only that whatever it is, he will be thinking only of himself. 

"If he declares victory on election night, regardless of the uncounted ballots, what then? What if he calls the entire election a fraud, a hoax, and demands that the counting stop? Or if armed Trump supporters heed his call to intimidate voters at the polls? What if he takes to Twitter with "LIBERATE AMERICA!" and his MAGA zealots respond?" (published on CNN.com)

So for the next few days keep that blood pressure kit close by your side.

***

Some headlines...

* Biden campaign cancels Texas event after Trump supporters surround bus on interstate. Trump applauded the action. (CNN) 

* Participants at a rally in a small North Carolina city to turn out the vote ahead of Tuesday’s election were pepper-sprayed by law enforcement officials on Saturday. (Reuters)

* Anxious but determined, Americans are pushing through challenges like the pandemic and long lines to cast their ballot. The country is on course to surpass 150 million votes for the first time. (NYT)

* In 2016, Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group used unorthodox polling to correctly predict five swing states and Donald Trump's electoral college tally. Rebuffing skeptics, he says undercounted voters will again elect Trump. (CNN)

* With just a few days left before Election Night and the president trailing in numerous state and national polls, Donald Trump’s inner circle is increasingly whispering the same thought: Our guy blew it. (The Daily Beast)

* Republicans, Not Biden, Are About to Raise Your Taxes -- President Trump built in tax increases beginning in 2021, for nearly everyone but those at the very top. (NYT)

* American Medical Association rips Trump's claim that doctors inflating COVID-19 numbers (The Hill)

* Protesters against COVID-19 restrictions clash with police in Spanish cities (Reuters)

* Latest polls in Pennsylvania: Biden 51%, Trump 44% (CNN)

* Travelers to New York must quarantine for three days, then get coronavirus test (Reuters)

* A once restrained Fauci unleashes on White House coronavirus approach days before election (CNN)

* A federal judge in Texas scheduled an emergency hearing for Monday on whether Houston officials unlawfully allowed drive-through voting and should toss more than 100,000 votes in the Democratic-leaning area. (Reuters)

* Store fronts in New York City and Washington, DC, are being boarded up ahead of Election Day (CNN)

* Austria orders curfew and shuts restaurants to fight 'exploding' COVID (Reuters)

* Britain to impose new lockdown on all of England (NHK)

* Iran imposes new restrictions to stem coronavirus spread (Reuters)

***

Personal anecdote from Halloween. The sun was still up here when the kids went trick or treating. I trailed along with my wraparound sunglasses and cane, my aged craggy face and long white hair.

"He's going as a blind man," my daughter explained to neighbors.

"Yes, in other words as a Trump voter," I added.

***

Riders on the storm
Riders on the storm
Into this house we're born
Into this world we're thrown

Like a dog without a bone
An actor out alone
Riders on the storm
There's a killer on the road

-- The Doors

-30-

Bad Moon On the Rise

When it comes to news summaries, there really is only one story worth noting today.

Ron Suskind of the Times brings us the nightmare scenario Trump's own officials fear the most -- that he will disrupt the election, as outlined below, and incite violence across the country.

These are not Democrats or leftist conspiracy bust speaking; these are those within the Trump administration.

Our country has not faced a crisis of that proportion since the Civil War.

This is where Trump's coded calls to the likes of the Proud Boys, Qanon, and the "militia" members who aimed to kidnap and kill Michigan's governor come into play. They are all "standing by," waiting for him to signal what to do next.

As he continues his desperate strategy of holding large, maskless rallies attacking or mocking anyone and everyone (even Laura Ingraham for heaven's sake) he perceives as not on his side, he is doing immeasurable harm to our democracy.

By goading on his twisted form of white grievance, he is abusing the very people who support him most. It is the under-educated, mainly rural white people who are being manipulated into believing they are victims because better-educated, urban-based people of color are succeeding in ways they are not.

This form of grievance overlooks the many people of color who are also left behind by the economic and technological forces shaping the edge of change sweeping our society.

In fact, a much larger problem is we are dividing into a two class country, with a few mega-rich and a large number of poor people. Trump may be able to convince his supporters they are victims, but he does not tell them that he -- and other wealthy people like him -- are those getting ahead while they fall behind.

It's a cruel joke and it is on those who vote for Trump.

Happy Halloween.

Those headlines...

*  he Day After Election Day -- New York Times journalist Ron Suskind has talked with multiple current and former Trump administration officials who say they’re deeply concerned about what President Donald Trump will do the day after the election next week. In multiple interviews, these officials sketched out a scenario in which Trump would encourage his supporters to disrupt voting in cities in key swing states.“Disruption would most likely begin on Election Day morning somewhere on the East Coast, where polls open first,” Suskind writes. “Miami and Philadelphia (already convulsed this week after another police shooting), in big swing states, would be likely locations. It could be anything, maybe violent, maybe not, started by anyone, or something planned and executed by any number of organizations, almost all of them on the right fringe, many adoring of Mr. Trump.” The big danger, these officials tell Suskind, is that early news of unrest at polling places will spark further instances across the country.“News of even a few incidents could summon a violent segment of Mr. Trump’s supporters into action, giving foreign actors even more to amplify and distribute, spreading what is, after all, news of mayhem to the wider concentric circles of Mr. Trump’s loyalists,” he writes. Officials then say Trump will claim some kind of “victory” on November 4th even if the vote tallies show him behind. “If the streets then fill with outraged people, he can easily summon, or prompt, or encourage troublemakers among his loyalists to turn a peaceful crowd into a sea of mayhem,” Suskind writes. “They might improvise on their own in sparking violence, presuming it pleases their leader.” One FBI official tells Suskind that the agency has been gaming out how it will handle weeks of unrest that could come after the election. “We’ve been talking to our state and local counterparts and gearing up for the expectation that it’s going to be a significant law-enforcement challenge for probably weeks or months,” this official said. “It feels pretty terrifying.” (NYT/RawStory)

* With Election Day looming, an anxious nation hears rumblings of violence (WashPo)

* President Trump and his campaign have been calling for an army of poll watchers on Election Day. What is poll watching, and when does it cross the line? We look at how a federal consent decree restricted the Republican Party for decades, and why its expiration could make a difference in 2020. (NYT)

* GOP shifts from challenging rules to preparing to challenge ballots -- After largely failing to limit access to mail-in voting, Republicans now look to contest votes already cast. (WashPo)

* Videogames were already a multibillion-dollar industry. The pandemic is sending them to another level. The way we entertain ourselves may never be the same. (WSJ)

* The virus had spared Alaska’s most remote villages. Not anymore. (WashPo)

* Nursing Homes, Racked by the Virus, Face a New Crisis: Isolation (NYT)

* As a divisive election arrives, the National Guard prepares for unrest and wrestles with how to respond (WashPo)

* Trump Mocks Laura Ingraham’s Face Mask During Rally -- President Trump called Laura Ingraham, a Fox News host, “politically correct” for wearing a mask during his rally in Michigan on Friday. (AP)

* New lockdowns in England as restrictions return around Europe (WashPo)

* In Florida, voters of color and young voters have had ballots flagged for possible rejection at higher rates than others (WashPo)

* Children from Central America are being sent across the border to Mexico, where they may not have any family. An internal email said the transfers violated the government’s own policies.  (NYT)

* Canada’s oil patch has nearly 100,000 suspended wells, neither active nor capped, and they’re a worrying source of planet-warming methane. (NYT)

***

Don't go around tonight
Well it's bound to take your life
There's a bad moon on the rise

-- John Fogerty

-30-