David's Predictions

*Three important polls all showed a significant tightening of the battle between the two parties for control of the House and the Senate. After reviewing these polls, it looks to me that, nationally, what once was a ~15 point edge for the Democrats has shrunk to ~5 points. This is the normal trend in national elections, where negative advertising and get-out-the-vote blitzes by the trailing party energize its base by election day.

*On the other hand, these late trends are usually "too little, too late," and that certainly appears to be the case this year when it comes to the movement of the electorate toward the GOP, at least in the House of Representatives.

*Pundits are speculating that the Democrats could pick up many more seats than the 15 they need to wrest back control of the House. Looking at the tightest races east to west, we should be able get a sense early tonight of how large the Democratic victory will be from the races in New York, Florida (for Republican sex- scandal-ridden Mark Foley's seat), Connecticut and Pennsylvania.)

*My view is that the Democrats will pick up 20 seats, and Nancy Pelosi will become the first female Speaker of the House in American history. Moderate members in both parties (assuming any remain in the GOP, after tonight) will still be able to influence policy.

*In the Senate races, the last-minute trends spell bad news for Democrats. I now think that Webb (in Virginia vs. Allen) and Ford (in Tennessee vs. Corker) are likely to lose. If both do, and if the Democrats lose Menendez's seat in New Jersey, their hopes are ended. On the other hand, if they win two of those three, three races out west (in Montana, Missouri and Arizona) may be the determining contests.

*I now feel the GOP will hold on to the Senate, either by 51-49 or 50-50 (with Dick Cheney by law then able to cast the tiebreaker vote.)

*None of this reflects my experience that every election night contains at least one big surprise. Naturally, I have no guess yet what that will be tonight...


Links to Polls

Pew: Democrats Hold 47%-43% Lead Among Likely Voters

Gallup/USAT: Democrats' leads shrinking but still strong

The non-profit organization Public Agenda has provided a handy guide to how to understood polls, called 20 Questions Journalists Should Ask About Poll Results .


More soon...

-30-