A Democratic Wave is Forming.1

I posted earlier today that I would watch a number of East Coast contests in order to draw my initial conclusions. The Democrats appear to have a net +3 in the Senate. Of the eight seats that now look to be decided, seven have been won by Democrats and one by an Independent who will vote with them. There are 8 more races in play, and the new math of the Senate effectively comes out at this moment 47-45 for the GOP. The key still will be the races in Virginia, Missouri, Montana, and Arizona. Since, as I anticipated, Webb is losing to Allen in Virginia, (although don't write him off yet, as the northern counties haven't fully been counted yet); the three western states may determine tonight's outcome. It now looks like the Democrats may pull out control of the Senate, but it's clear that the balance of power will come down to something like 50-49-1, with the "1" an Independent (Joe Lieberman) promising to vote with the Democrats.

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In the House, results are moving more slowly, but my key indicator races are leaning Democratic as well. They've only picked up maybe 3-4 seats so far, and the Republicans 1. With almost 20% of the House seats still in play (or in states where the polls are still open), neither party is saying anything publicly yet. But the trends are blue. Here, I fully expect that Nancy Pelosi, on our ballot here in my precinct on Bryant Street, will claim the Speaker of the House gavel come January.

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Among the high-profile losers are the moderate Republicans like Lincoln Chafee (R.I.) and conservatives like Rick Santorum (Pa.).

Important Indirect Indicators:

The stock market moved sharply upward today.

The "futures" markets in political candidates favor Democrats.

No Democratic incumbents are losing anywhere. Some GOP incumbents, however, are losing...

Current Numbers:

Senate
Race Democratic Republican Other Winner Precincts Updated

CT-SEN Lamont (D): 41% Schlesinger (R): 10% Lieberman (CFL): 48% Ind 3% 09:17 pm EST
FL-SEN Nelson (D): 57% Harris (R): 41% n/a Dem 16% 09:23 pm EST
MD-SEN Cardin (D): 41% Steele (R): 57% n/a Dem 0% 09:24 pm EST

NJ-SEN Menendez (D): 52% Kean (R): 46% n/a Dem 25% 09:20 pm EST
OH-SEN Brown (D): 56% DeWine (R): 44% n/a Dem 2% 09:17 pm EST
PA-SEN Casey (D): 66% Santorum (R): 34% n/a Dem 7% 09:21 pm EST

TN-SEN Ford (D): 46% Corker (R): 53% n/a n/a 17% 09:19 pm EST
VA-SEN Webb (D): 48% Allen (R): 50% n/a n/a 74% 09:14 pm EST
VT-SEN Sanders (I): 64% Tarrant (R): 33% n/a Dem 15% 09:25 pm EST