Wednesday, November 08, 2006

"Final" Results.1

SENATE

Democrats 51
Republicans 49

HOUSE

Democrats 231
Republicans 201
Undecided 3


Afternoon Update: Only one undecided Senate seat (Virginia) and ten undecided House seats (6 leaning GOP, 1 leaning Dem, 3 too close to call) remain open. Nothing has happened to change the numbers above. They remain solid.

The first casualty of the election in the administration is Rumsfeld, who was fired by Bush today.




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Note: These numbers are based on which candidate is ahead in the two disputed Senate races and 10 of the 13 disputed House races. The Democrats should win both the Virginia and Montana Senate seats, unless Karl Rove pulls off one of his dirty trick specials, which remains a possibility, especially in Virginia.

All but 3 of those undecided House contests will, according to my calculations, go to the clear leader, which in seven cases is a Republican, and in three a Democrat. There are three cases where the candidates are effectively tied.

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What does this all mean? In addition to winning control of both houses of Congress, the Democrats hold between 28-30 state governor seats now. They also benefited from at least one surprise upset, as Democrat Jerry McNerny ousted controversial GOP incumbent Richard Pombo. This is a major victory for environmentalists.

On the other hand, Proposition 87, which would have created a tax on oil companies to fund alternative energy projects, was defeated. This, despite Bill Clinton and Al Gore's strong support and in-state campaigning.

Big environmental propositions usually go down to defeat in California when voters think they are poorly written and too all encompassing. My guess is that the initiative's authors will have to go back to the drawing board to craft a more palatable proposition, and then build broader support before bringing this critical issue back to the ballot.

On the other hand, with a faux Democrat Governor firmly at the helm, and Democrats in total control of the state legislature, it's possible that the state itself may make some new moves in the direction of alternative energy that do not require raising taxes, but redirecting state expenditures for vehicle purchases, travel policies, and energy-efficient facility regulations.

--More TK --

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