It does not appear that much exit poll data will be available today from the Presidential primaries in New Hampshire. The major media pool seems to be adhering to a commitment to not leak any data until the polls close (8 p.m. EST)
Of course, in their rush to be first, some reporters will jump the gun slightly, as in "Oops, I didn't mean to push the send key at 7:40, it was an accident!"
On the other hand, since cocktail hour starts three hours before the polls close, it wouldn't surprise if someone (it only takes one) leaks out some data to friends on the outside (all of us not on the inside) -- so it's worth keeping an eye on political blogsters just in case.
Lacking concrete data, we can only analyze the latest public opinion polls. As is widely reported, Democratic Sen. Obama appears to be harvesting a "bounce" from his Iowa victory a week ago, and may beat Sen. Clinton by 10-15 points tonight. Sen. Edwards drifts along, probably in third.
The Republican race seems less clear. Sen. McCain appears to be peaking, but some polls indicate that Gov. Romney got a "bounce" from the candidate debate over the weekend. Either candidate could win New Hampshire, though McCain seems to have an edge.
Every analyst mentions the relatively high percentage of independent voters in New Hampshire, so the chattering classes are hoping to track how independents split between Obama and McCain, considered the most attractive candidates to non-party-affiliated voters.
Early reports of towns running out of Democratic ballots is fueling speculation that Obama is already winning that battle.
For those interested in how to interpret exit poll data, once they do become public tonight, I've linked this post's title to an excellent article written by Marc Blumenthal at Pollster.com. Just click on the title to read his column.
-30-
No comments:
Post a Comment