Rising Prospects

They're off! This year's attendees to Burning Man are heading inland toward the Sierra, up and over to the high desert of Nevada.

My upstairs house mate's excitement has been palpable as she packs every last nook and cranny of her VW hatchback with camping gear. When I asked her what kind of outfit she wears out there she smiled and said, "my tennis shoes." I lent her a camping chair.

This, the first morning in memory when I actually don't have to do anything or go anywhere is a rich luxury. I walked for 45 minutes around my neighborhood, ran a few errands, and watched confirmation on CNN of my choice for Vice-President.

The best gaffe of the morning was John King's slip -- "O'Biden." Made me wonder what will happen when McCain choses Romney, the Morman. "McMitt?" "McMorman?"

So be it. "Obama and O'Biden v McCain and McRomney." That has a nice ring to it. Biden is, of course, exactly the right fit. He's Catholic, pro-union, popular with the white working class and minorities. He's blunt, tough, and probably the most knowledgeable U.S. Senator on foreign affairs.

He also is outspoken and given to gaffes, which is fine; it makes him more entertaining. (Maybe Lil' Bush can morph into Lil' O'Biden.) Everybody respects him and he's a great debater.

The GOP will get about a minute's worth of play that this means Obama is admitting he is weak in foreign affairs. And...? If so, he ain't weak any more. That dog don't hunt.

Except for Hillary, Biden is probably the next best candidate to address O'Bama's weakness among white working class men. I'd anticipate a building movement among Democrats of all types to gather behind the ticket, now there is one.

After the upcoming convention, Obama/Biden will hole about a 6-9 point lead in the polls. McCain should get a bump from his convention the following week. Then, the undecideds, which number as high as 15% in some polls, will begin to divide out behind these candidates, save for a slender slice that will go to Nader, Barr or Paul.

I do not think these marginal candidates will be a factor, but if they are, it will play to McCain's detriment this cycle, since both of the Libertarians are fairly compelling and Paul is a money machine.

Nader is over the hill. Progressives don't even like him any more.

It is going to be a very close election. At Predictify, hundreds of Predictifiers are voting on their best guess of the final electoral vote spread. Last I checked, it was Obama by 17, which translates into 278-261. Predictify's member base does not skew liberal, BTW, but Libertarian, so that is not a data point that the McCain camp can relish.

Also, a very important point, the questions we pose there are deterministic. Therefore, people don't vote with their hearts but with their brains, competing to marshal the strongest logic behind their choices, in order to rise in the ranks and also to make money.

I'll be floating the electoral spread question many times this fall in order to watch how, and if, this crowd's prediction changes.

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