There's little if any evidence historically to indicate that the choice of a running mate has much impact on Presidential elections. Months ago, as I thought about a logical choice for Obama, I settled on Sen. Joseph Biden, a respected foreign policy expert.
For McCain, I thought that a social conservative would be his logical choice, somebody younger and far to his right.
But, the campaign organizations for both candidates have chosen to drag out the process of identifying their V-P choices, apparently in the hope of achieving maximum media impact.
As the date for Obama approaches (reportedly tomorrow morning) the "balloon" candidates being floated by insiders are Biden, Sen. Evan Bayh (Indiana), or Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine. The latter two hail from swing states.
Yet, since modern political campaigns are much more about media coverage and hype than substance, the Obama camp seems to be hinting that a "surprise" is in order. Ralph Nader, the perennial spoiler candidate, has opined that Hillary Clinton is going to be Obama's running mate.
I don't think so. Several of the political insiders I respect the most have suggested to me that Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius will be his choice. I suppose the logic there is not only to go after another swing state but to get a woman on the ticket, albeit not Hillary.
Nader, trying to play the pragmatist, thinks Obama needs Clinton's supporters to win the election, and there are plenty of poll results to support his POV. But, Obama has already given not only Hillary, but Bill Clinton, major rolls at the convention, and my strong sense is that that is as far as he is willing to go for a political couple who have already severely damaged his chances this election cycle, and continue to do so, almost daily.
So, forget it Ralph. This ain't 1960, and Hillary is no LBJ. Not only that, Obama is no JFK.
I'm sticking with Biden. He's older, respected, "safe." And that is the main criteria for a V-P.
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McCain's choice is another matter.
Who are his people floating? Lieberman and Ridge! Wow -- I can't believe McCain would choose a pro-choice running mate, but those guys are leading the speculative pack at this juncture, according to informed insiders.
I think what McCain is doing here is trying to gauge how much damage either man would do to his shaky relationship with evangelicals. Initial reports suggest they would create major damage.
The GOP is also floating these names this week, trying to steal some of the Democrats' thunder as their choice finally becomes public and their convention gets under way.
As the presider (a Bushism) over the second convention, McCain has the relative luxury of holding his cards until Obama reveals his choice. Therefore, my guess is that McCain will recalibrate his search between now and the day the Democratic Convention ends.
His forces promise a "surprise," just like Obama's. Certainly Independent Lieberman would be a shocker; after all he was Al Gore' running mate in 2000, when the Democrats won the popular vote, and the Supreme Court had to step in to decide which party had won the electoral majority.
In the end, I think McCain also will choose a safer V-P candidate, which means a younger, conservative Christian, pro-life running mate from some state that no one thinks he has an ice cube's chance in hell of winning...someone like, say, Rev. Rick Warren of California!
You read it here first.
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