The (Most Likely) Scenario

Those of us keeping a close watch on the polls are seeing what was hardly imaginable a week ago: The race for president is getting even tighter.

Last week, I had calculated that the winning margin in the battleground states would come down to 0.0023 of the national electorate. According to my latest math, that sliver has been cut by a third to 0.0016 of the national electorate. It’s so close that if somebody in the Midwest should sneeze or somebody else in the Sunbelt blinks, the whole thing could pivot one way or the other in a flash.

Over the past week, the numbers have all shifted slightly in Trump’s favor. He has cut into Harris’s lead in the Blue Wall states and widened his lead in the Sunbelt. The leads for either candidate have become microscopic — under 1 point in six of the seven. Arizona is the lone exception (Trump is up 1.5 points there). 

So not only are they all within the margin of error, they are within the margin of believability. What is going on here?

Anyway, based on the latest poll averages from 538 as of 7 a.m. PT this morning, it now looks like the vote margins in the seven battlegrounds will now be as follows:

Arizona Trump +52,860

Georgia Trump +41,600

Michigan Harris +51,849

Nevada Harris +11,688

N. Carolina Trump +51,714

Pennsylvania Harris +43,290

Wisconsin. Harris +20,580

As close as these races may be, one thing has not changed — Harris still is in line to win the Electoral College, 277-261.

But here’s the deal. We are extremely unlikely to know which side won on November 5th or for days afterward, as the ballots continue to be counted. Even then, due to such close popular vote margins, the loser is certain to challenge the results of the closest state races in court, further delaying and confusing matters.

Therefore, this election, like that in 2000, could end up with the Supreme Court, which if it acted in what was perceived as a partisan manner, would effectively end our democracy as we’ve known it for the past 250 years.

There are 25 days until the election. Mail-in voting is underway. Depending on turnout, the weather, current events, and factors that cannot be anticipated, final results could still vary significantly from my projections.

(Note on methodology: I took the vote totals in each state in 2020, increased them by four percent to account for population growth and then used 538’s latest poll averages as of this morning to calculate the number of likely vote totals and margins in each state.)

HEADLINES:

• Exclusive: Harris overtakes Trump among suburban voters, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows (Reuters)

• Battle for Swing States Is Tied, Trump Has Edge on Top Issues, WSJ Poll Shows (WSJ)

• What do polls tell us about race for Pennsylvania? (BBC)

• Inside the Battle for America’s Most Consequential Battleground State (NYT)

• Behind the Curtain: Dems' Blue Wall blues (Axios)

• Harris faces urgency to more forcefully signal a break from Biden. Aides say Harris is deeply loyal to Biden and resistant to publicly doing anything that could be construed as criticizing his presidency, though his favorability ratings remain underwater. Harris’ team has tried to keep Biden at a distance on the campaign trail, yet she has been pulled into appearing by his side to address emergencies. (AP)

• Ohio voters dismiss false claims about Haitians, but Trump has slight lead, Post poll finds (WP)

• Former President Donald Trump boasted about his crowd size during his rally in Reading, Pennsylvania. "We never have an empty seat, never have, look at it," he said. The only problem? There were plenty of empty seats toward the back of the venue. [HuffPost]

• Hurricane Milton leaves at least 16 dead in Florida as millions left without power in storm’s aftermath (Independent)

• Hurricane shocked state with deadly tornadoes well ahead of landfall (WP)

• At least 9 deaths confirmed following monster storm slamming into Florida (NBC)

• Taylor Swift Donates $5 Million to Hurricane Helene and Milton Relief Efforts (Rolling Stone)

• What we couldn't prepare for with Hurricane Milton (Axios)

• Florida threatens to criminally charge TV stations airing abortion rights ad (WP)

• US inflation reaches lowest point in 3 years, though some price pressures remain (AP)

• U.N. says Israeli forces battling Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon fire on UNIFIL peacekeepers, wounding two (CBS)

• Iranian Official Heads to Saudi Arabia as Israel Postpones U.S. Meeting (NYT)

• These maps and images show what's left of Gaza, 1 year into the Israel-Hamas war (NPR)

• Earth’s wildlife populations have disappeared at a ‘catastrophic’ rate in the past half-century, new analysis says(WP)

• Google's Nobel prize winners stir debate over AI research (Reuters)

• Someone claims to have used AI to apply to 2,843 jobs (TechCrunch)

• How to Say No to Our A.I. Overlords (NYT)

• Ambulance Driver Pretty Embarrassed She Did All That Just To Go Three Blocks (The Onion)