A month out from Election Day, the polling site 538 gives Kamala Harris a 55 percent chance of winning the election over Donald Trump. Harris maintains a narrow lead of about 2.5 points in the national polls, and enough of a lead in key Blue Wall battleground states to eke out a victory in the Electoral College.
Harris leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin by identical margins of 1.6 points and in Pennsylvania by a minuscule 0.5 points. She also has a commanding lead in the Blue Dot district of Nebraska with its one electoral vote and a 1.0 lead in Nevada.
If those leads hold, it would translate into a Harris victory in the Electoral College, 277-261.
But the problem with these polls as prediction engines is that they all fall well within the margin of error. So while 538 only gives Trump a 45 percent chance of winning, I think the actual odds are closer to 50-50.
That’s because Trump has been edging closer to Harris in the Blue Wall states in recent weeks, and has been holding sway in the Sunbelt — Arizona (by 1.1 points), Georgia (by 1.2 points) and by 0.9 points in North Carolina.
Should Trump win these three and flips Pennsylvania, he would win, 280-268.
Harris will win the popular vote by a large margin. The only question is by how much. Currently, it appears to be well over 4 million votes, which would be more than Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victory in 2016 (2.9 million) but less than Joe Biden’s in 2020 (7 million).
It’s worth noting that if the U.S. were a direct democracy, Trump never would have gotten his first term, let alone have a shot at a second.
HEADLINES:
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? (538)
30 Days Out, the Harris and Trump Campaigns Brace for ‘Trench Warfare’ (NYT)
Combating Misinformation Runs Deeper Than Swatting Away ‘Fake News’ (Scientific American)
Hurricane Milton strengthens into a Category 4. Florida prepares for evacuations and storm surge (AP)
A Worst-Case Hurricane Scenario Could Be Emerging For Tampa Bay (Forbes)
'Ridiculous and just plain false': FEMA administrator knocks Trump's Hurricane Helene recovery claims (USA Today)
Facing military setbacks, Tehran may look to the bomb, analysts fear (WP)
As Israel Attacks, Many Lebanese Feel Dragged Into Someone Else’s War (NYT)
Mossad’s pager operation: Inside Israel’s penetration of Hezbollah (WP)
A Kris Kristofferson Story You Never Heard (Journal of the Plague Years)
'Ghost ship of the Pacific' found in amazing state off California coast (SF Gate)
Meta Unveils Instant A.I. Video Generator That Adds Sounds (NYT)
NFL Attempts To Boost Kickoff Scoring By Adding Defensive Blindfolds (The Onion)
LYRICS:
All Along the Watchtower by Bob Dylan
There must be some kind of way outta here
Said the joker to the thief
There's too much confusion
I can't get no relief
Business men, they drink my wine
Plowmen dig my earth
None will level on the line
Nobody offered his word
Hey, hey
No reason to get excited
The thief, he kindly spoke
There are many here among us
Who feel that life is but a joke
But, uh, but you and I, we've been through that
And this is not our fate
So let us stop talkin' falsely now
The hour's getting late, hey
Hey
All along the watchtower
Princes kept the view
While all the women came and went
Barefoot servants, too
Well, uh, outside in the cold distance
A wildcat did growl
Two riders were approaching
And the wind began to howl, hey
All along the watchtower
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