Prediction markets are a tricky business when it comes to politics, for all sorts of reasons, but they can have value as the election gets closer.
Accordingly, I checked this morning with Kalshi, and here’s what I found:
Which party will win the U.S. House? The Democratic Party 90 percent to 10 percent.
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? The Democratic Party 62 percent - 38 percent.
Texas Senate race? Talarico (D) 64 percent - Paxton (R) 36 percent.
Michigan Senate race? El-Sayed (D) 68 percent - Rogers (R) 32 percent.
The consensus among those betting at the site is that a “blue wave” will result in at least 230-237 seats for Democrats in the House, where 218 is needed for a majority.
And in the Senate, Democrats stand to hold 52-53 seats, where 51 represents a majority.
Now I’m not a betting man, but I thought it might be nice to start off today with some who are.
HEADLINES:
MI5 chief warns of threats to UK from Russia, Iran and AI (BBC)
Cyberattack Hits Hundreds of Supermarket Refrigeration Systems in France (NYT)
Trump attacks Rep. Ilhan Omar and Senate hopeful Abdul El-Sayed at Ohio rally (NBC)
Trump subjected the crowd at his Ohio rally to an absurd and bigoted rant about Somalis, singling out Somali-American Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), whose home was raided by federal agents earlier in the day. The president also stood by as a crowd member violently slapped a protester and then went on to spew vile insults at the person himself. [HuffPost]
The Ilhan Omar home search fits a very political pattern for Trump and his DOJ (CNN)
Kimberly Guilfoyle Resigns as Ambassador to Greece (NYT)
Internet can’t stop laughing at White House press secretary’s short and awkward briefing: ‘Is this a hostage video’ (Independent)
Air Force Major Who Called for Trump’s Impeachment is in Solitary Confinement 24 Hours a Day: Attorney (Military.com)
Supreme Court to Review Dispute Over Access to DOGE Records (NYT)
Why the Intelligence Gap Really Matters (Atlantic)
Inside Elon Musk’s $276 Million Midterm Rescue Mission for Republicans (NYT)
Cooper holds 14-point lead in North Carolina Senate race poll (The Hill)
Will Republican gerrymanders become dummymanders? (Silver Bulletin)
Cornell Bans Fraternity Parties and Adds Sexual Assault Investigators (NYT)
Iran reportedly fortifies nuclear sites as it prepares for possible U.S. strikes after midterms (CNBC)
As Houthis strike Riyadh, Saudi Arabia confronts the costs of U.S. war on Iran (WP)
Saudi Arabia's warning system stayed silent before deadly airport attacks (Reuters)
Pope Leo Found to Have Lung Cancer During Surgery, Vatican Says (NYT)
Could the US cut Ukraine off from vital military intelligence again? (Euronews)
Man dies after falling off Goliath roller coaster at Six Flags Over Georgia (CNN)
LATEST AI NEWS:
What Congress can do to prevent an AI catastrophe (Economist)
How California Is Using A.I. and Cameras to Stop Wildfires (NYT)
WarTalk: AutoWarCom and Project Meridian (China Talk)
AI models may soon self-replicate across smart-home devices, Anthropic warns (Reuters)
Jon Stewart Is Right About AI And Wrong (YouTube)
FBI arrests OpenAI employee accused of placing recording device in company conference room (AP)
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