Election Eve

Although tomorrow is known as Election Day, it probably should be called the Last Chance Saloon of this election season. One way or another, voting will wrap up for the 100 million or so Americans participating in what increasingly appears to be a “blue wave.” Well over half have already cast their ballots.

From the New York Times: “Democrats gained ground right to the end in the final New York Times/Siena University pollsof the 2026 midterm campaign. The party is ahead in all seven states likeliest to decide control of the Senate: Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio and, more narrowly, Alaska and Iowa.”

In Michigan, El-Sayed(D) leads Rogers(R) 53-42 percent.

In Kansas, Hamilton(D) leads Marshall (R) 49-44.

In Texas, Talarico (D) leads Paxton (R) 50-43.

In Maine, Jackson(D) leads Collins(R) 51-45.

In Ohio, Brown(D) leads Hustad(R) 49-45.

In Alaska, Peltola(D) leads Sullivan(R) 48-46.

In Iowa, Turek(D) leads Hinson(R) 48-47

In the Kalshi prediction market, the bets are Democrats will hold 53 seats to 46 for Republicans with the race in Iowa too close to call. Kalshi rates the Democrats’ chances to take over the Senate at 74 percent.

The only thing in question about the House is the size of the Democratic victory, which Kalshi predicts will be 234-187 with 14 races too close to call. 

Kalshi even expects Democrats to be in control of the Governor’s office in 28 states as opposed to 22 for Republicans.

ELECTION HEADLINES:

• Democrats Show Strength in Final Days of Race for the Senate, New Polls Find (NYT)

• The NYT/Siena polls show a blue tsunami (Silver Bulletin)

• The top 11 Senate seats most likely to flip, the day before the midterms (CNN)

• Judge tosses Trump’s attempt to block Alaska Senate results if GOP incumbent loses (NPR)

• Sullivan: ‘I’m going to accept the election results’ (The Hill)

• Inside Trump’s Dark Plot to Keep Senate in GOP Hands Even If Dems Win (TNR)

• Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate election (CNBC)

• Democrat Haley Stevens appears with Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers (WP)

• Could Haley Stevens cost Democrats the Senate? (Silver Bulletin)

• Haley Stevens’ Unsettling CNN Interview Proves Why She’s Unfit for Public Office (Variety)

• Concern mounts for Democrat Haley Stevens after ‘trainwreck’ CNN interview over Republican endorsement (Independent)

• James Talarico’s Final Sprint (New Yorker)

• A midterm crossroads for both parties eyeing the beginning of the end of the Trump era (AP)

• 2 days until midterms, Trump campaigns in Iowa and Kansas as both parties make final push (Fox)

• More than 50 million votes cast in US midterm elections: What does it mean? (Al Jazeera)

• Corruption on the Ballot (New Yorker)

• Trump White House maps path to govern without Congress if Democrats win (Reuters)

• 3 maps for the morning after the midterms (Silver Bulletin)

OTHER HEADLINES:

• Cyberattacks Hit Ukraine’s and Russia’s Emergency Alert Apps (WSJ)

• Sen. Chris Murphy is hospitalized after stroke (Politico)

• 9 Die in a Small Plane Crash in Florida, Official Says (NYT)

• 'Grasping at straws': Judge dismisses Trump suit against Wall Street Journal over Epstein letter (AP)

• US attorneys are freeing children from Trump’s ‘deportation machine’ with a new strategy (Guardian)

• Supreme Court hears religious freedom case centered on universal pre-K program (NPR)

• Race questions face new fight ahead of 2030 Census (Axios)

• The Lean Out (BI)

• Israeli officials say elections will stand after Netanyahu claimed Arabs stole vote (AP)

• Yaxel Lendeborg scores 37 points, most by a Warriors rookie since Stephen Curry (ESPN)

• Dakota Johnson wants you to have better sex (CNN)

• Can’t Afford a Home. Can’t Afford a Baby. Can’t Afford Life. This Is 30. (NYT)

• Common pesticide linked to 2.5 times the risk of Parkinson’s disease (ScienceDaily)

• United Nations report highlights significant increase in U.S. climate pollution (NPR)

• We’d Be Entering an Ice Age Right Now if Climate Change Hadn’t Terminated It, Study Suggests (ScienceAlert)

AI HEADLINES:

• Anthropic hiring manager says he stopped giving coding interviews because Claude is better at them — and tells junior engineers that ‘hunger beats tenure’ (TechRadar)

• The Year Math Changed Forever (New Yorker)

• We’re Living in the Age of the Imperial CEO (WSJ)

• Korea’s Stock Market Crashed $1 Trillion. What Does That Mean for the Global AI Race? (China Talk)

The ONION:

• Rich Family Giving Out King-Sized Mattresses