It turns out we were right, Obama and Huckabee prevailed in Iowa tonight. So now, here are two more predictions: Obama will win the Democratic nomination but Huckabee will not win the GOP nomination. Honestly, I cannot yet figure out who will be the Republican nominee -- McCain? Giulani? Someone but certainly not Huckabee. Maybe Bloomberg?
But, from what I can divine from the Iowa vote, it really does not matter who the Republican candidate is. I predict that the next President of the United States will be Barack Obama.
And that is a good thing.
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Thursday, January 03, 2008
Iowa Caucuses: Obama & Huckabee?
The political blogs I watch are alive with speculation and some purported early exit poll results from today's Presidential primary caucuses in Iowa. A little over an hour from now, the first results may become public.
As usual on election days, I've been sifting data, for the heck of it, and now have my predictions set:
Obama will win narrowly for the Democrats. Edwards and Clinton in a virtual tie for second. No one else registers enough to be taken seriously.
Huckabee will win for Republicans. Romney takes the hit. Paul almost beats him.
Neither of these outcomes will be as important for the next stage of the campaigns as the winners may hope, or the losers may fear. New Hampshire is up next, where different winners are expected. A month from now, a large number of state primaries will clarify the electoral picture. Clinton still seems to be ahead nationally; but Romney may be fading for the GOP. Huckabee is unlikely so Giulani and McCain, neither of which have mounted credible campaigns yet, may duke it out.
All predictions subject to revision!
-30-
As usual on election days, I've been sifting data, for the heck of it, and now have my predictions set:
Obama will win narrowly for the Democrats. Edwards and Clinton in a virtual tie for second. No one else registers enough to be taken seriously.
Huckabee will win for Republicans. Romney takes the hit. Paul almost beats him.
Neither of these outcomes will be as important for the next stage of the campaigns as the winners may hope, or the losers may fear. New Hampshire is up next, where different winners are expected. A month from now, a large number of state primaries will clarify the electoral picture. Clinton still seems to be ahead nationally; but Romney may be fading for the GOP. Huckabee is unlikely so Giulani and McCain, neither of which have mounted credible campaigns yet, may duke it out.
All predictions subject to revision!
-30-
RePost: Twelve that need help
Nov. '05 East Biloxi
I only got to mention these worthy grassroots groups on the Mississippi Gulf Coast briefly before the holiday. Now, we are into the new year, please consider helping one or more of them if you can. In such a poor area, gifts as small as $20 go a long way! Although there has been some progress toward rebuilding casinos and homes for the rich post-Katrina, these groups represent the many people left out -- the working poor, disabled, ill, and those virtually without hope.
Claywork by Julia1. Mercy Housing and Human Development Utilizing integrated strategies to provide housing, community and economic development for low-income families of Mississippi.
2. North Gulfport Community Land Trust Dedicated to providing permanently affordable homeownership to residents in North Gulfport.
3. The Steps Coalition The mission of the Steps Coalition is to promote an equitable recovery and healthy, just, and sustainable communities in South Mississippi.
4. Back Bay Mission Founded in 1922, the mission has always kept the impoverished and marginalized at the center of its concern.
5. Mississippi Center for Justice An organization dedicated to advancing racial and economic justice.
6. NAACP Biloxi Branch
7. Living Independence for Everyone (LIFE) The Southeast's Regional disability resource center offers a wide range of resources, education, and advocacy to the community to help level the playing field for people with disabilities.
8. Moore Community House MCH works with the east Biloxi community assisting low-income neighbors with quality child care, family services & local economic development.
9. Sierra Club Mississippi My informant tells me: "All environmental orgs are really struggling down here, kind of hung out to dry. With oil and chemical companies making the people down here die of cancer, confused by intractable poverty/need for "job creation" and the good ol' boys' billfolds, local George Bush-style denial, it's a hard case to make.
10. St. Rose Outreach and Recovery Operates under the premise that no family can recover from Katrina until it has a safe and secure home in which to live.
11. Gulf Restoration Network Works on a variety of issues in keeping with its mission of protecting and restoring the natural resources of the Gulf of Mexico.
12. Visions of Hope This traveling exhibit is an interactive and educational display that travels around the country to provide visitors, including breast cancer survivors and their families, with the most up-to-date information on breast cancer, detection, and treatment options.
Love, and may peace be with you.
David
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Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Long Live Michael Moore!
As a journalist who prides himself on our traditional values, most importantly getting the story, whatever it is, right, I have not exactly been a fan of the populist documentary maker's work. But finally this week I watched "Sicko!" Like many people, I heard about the various errors and mis-statements in this expose of the broken nature of our health care and insurance system here in the U.S. Others praised the movie, though not so much as journalism as an act of passion that nailed the basic story as few have done.
Upon reflection, I count myself among the latter. I suppose my tipping point was a ridiculous, virtually unintelligible set of "statements" from Blue Shield of California, purportedly a leading health insurer, and the recipient every month of a hefty family policy payment by me under the COBRA regulations that prevent Blus Shield from doing what they would do otherwise, which is drop me the minute I became unemployed.
Kafka would smile at this absurd set of forms, which attempt to break what was a straight forward medical visit to an emergency room (the only one Blue Shield would have honored at all, as I know from (vast) previous experience).
Kids fall and cut their heads. Every kid does it; it's what being a kid is all about. Some kids do it multiple times. So I've been to ERs, what, 10 times or so with my children over the past 30 years. The most recent occurred on November 23rd; I probably mentioned it in this blog.
Back to the Kafkaesque billing papers some bureaucrat at Blue Shield bestowed on me. I guess I'll just list the numbers: $260, $51, $187, $3,518. In case your calculator isn't handy, that is a total of $4,016 in charges for one two-hour visit, the great majority of which was spent in the waiting room, holding my groggy kid and trying to minimize the bleeding after his accident.
The insurance giant congratulates itself of disallowing $1,190 of these clearly inflated charges (Blue Shield proudly calls these "network savings,") to which I say "TMI" -- TOO MUCH INFORMATION -- or something a pithier commenter would label for what it is, B.S.
The bottom line, after the hospital and the insurer have had their way with one another, is $2,826 in "billable costs." And the actual bottom line, for me, is $974.20. So, after a deluge of unnecessary detail that only succeeds in convincing your truly that he indeed the one getting screwed here, I am being told that this brief visit, where an apparently non-indicated technology was employed (a CatScan), cost almost three thousand smackers, and that I should therefore feel grateful to only have to come up with a thousand of them.
Why is it, instead of comfort, I feel as if I am the one getting smacked here?
So, I say, keep it up, Michael Moore. We the people have precious few leaders willing to take on the Medical-Insurance Complex and attempt to foment change. We rarely go into the streets protesting, but that's just because each of us sits slumped in his or her chair, staring in disbelief at papers like those staring back coldly at me on this cold, cold afternoon, wondering where the hell the money's supposed to come from.
-30-
Upon reflection, I count myself among the latter. I suppose my tipping point was a ridiculous, virtually unintelligible set of "statements" from Blue Shield of California, purportedly a leading health insurer, and the recipient every month of a hefty family policy payment by me under the COBRA regulations that prevent Blus Shield from doing what they would do otherwise, which is drop me the minute I became unemployed.
Kafka would smile at this absurd set of forms, which attempt to break what was a straight forward medical visit to an emergency room (the only one Blue Shield would have honored at all, as I know from (vast) previous experience).
Kids fall and cut their heads. Every kid does it; it's what being a kid is all about. Some kids do it multiple times. So I've been to ERs, what, 10 times or so with my children over the past 30 years. The most recent occurred on November 23rd; I probably mentioned it in this blog.
Back to the Kafkaesque billing papers some bureaucrat at Blue Shield bestowed on me. I guess I'll just list the numbers: $260, $51, $187, $3,518. In case your calculator isn't handy, that is a total of $4,016 in charges for one two-hour visit, the great majority of which was spent in the waiting room, holding my groggy kid and trying to minimize the bleeding after his accident.
The insurance giant congratulates itself of disallowing $1,190 of these clearly inflated charges (Blue Shield proudly calls these "network savings,") to which I say "TMI" -- TOO MUCH INFORMATION -- or something a pithier commenter would label for what it is, B.S.
The bottom line, after the hospital and the insurer have had their way with one another, is $2,826 in "billable costs." And the actual bottom line, for me, is $974.20. So, after a deluge of unnecessary detail that only succeeds in convincing your truly that he indeed the one getting screwed here, I am being told that this brief visit, where an apparently non-indicated technology was employed (a CatScan), cost almost three thousand smackers, and that I should therefore feel grateful to only have to come up with a thousand of them.
Why is it, instead of comfort, I feel as if I am the one getting smacked here?
So, I say, keep it up, Michael Moore. We the people have precious few leaders willing to take on the Medical-Insurance Complex and attempt to foment change. We rarely go into the streets protesting, but that's just because each of us sits slumped in his or her chair, staring in disbelief at papers like those staring back coldly at me on this cold, cold afternoon, wondering where the hell the money's supposed to come from.
-30-
Grass Power
(No, not that kind, Doobie Brothers.)
Regular old grass turns out to be the toughest species on earth, according to the excellent BBC series Planet Earth, one of young environmentalist Dylan's favorites, which we watched with him recently.
The grasses of Africa sustain the largest and most varied herds of animals on earth, but grass grows everywhere, even in the polar icecap. In his book, The World Without Us, Alan Weisman details how grasses and other plants would quickly reclaim our cities, towns, highways, and farms once human beings became extinct.
I was reminded of both during today's walk through the Mission District, when I saw blades of grass spurting up through the cracks in sidewalks, courtesy of our recent winter rains. Winter here is our greenest season, almost the diametric opposite of life in Michigan, where I grew up...
Speaking of Michigan, and long ago times, an old friend, Tom Miller, who has commented on my blogs from time to time, sent this precious example of the way we looked then. This particular photo includes Tom and my sister Kathy. I don't think any of us recall the occasion, or who the photographer was...
-30-
Regular old grass turns out to be the toughest species on earth, according to the excellent BBC series Planet Earth, one of young environmentalist Dylan's favorites, which we watched with him recently.
The grasses of Africa sustain the largest and most varied herds of animals on earth, but grass grows everywhere, even in the polar icecap. In his book, The World Without Us, Alan Weisman details how grasses and other plants would quickly reclaim our cities, towns, highways, and farms once human beings became extinct.
I was reminded of both during today's walk through the Mission District, when I saw blades of grass spurting up through the cracks in sidewalks, courtesy of our recent winter rains. Winter here is our greenest season, almost the diametric opposite of life in Michigan, where I grew up...
Speaking of Michigan, and long ago times, an old friend, Tom Miller, who has commented on my blogs from time to time, sent this precious example of the way we looked then. This particular photo includes Tom and my sister Kathy. I don't think any of us recall the occasion, or who the photographer was...
-30-
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Happy New Year
I was thinking of my father today, and my mother. The last time we were together on January 1st was the last time we ever would be all alive together. Our tradition was to watch the Michigan football team's bowl games together, and that is exactly what we did on January 1, 1999. nine years ago. Dad died a couple nights later. But Michigan won that day, a come-from-behind victory over Arkansas.
Today, five years after my Mom died, I watched Michigan play in a bowl game alone. It was perhaps the most exciting game I've ever watched. Michigan came from behind to beat Florida, 41-35. Florida's Heisman-Trophy winning quarterback couldn't compete with Michigan's Chad Henne, who passed for 373 yards.
Michigan's offense generated well over 500 yards and held Florida to more than 100 less. It was a pretty sight.
-30-
Today, five years after my Mom died, I watched Michigan play in a bowl game alone. It was perhaps the most exciting game I've ever watched. Michigan came from behind to beat Florida, 41-35. Florida's Heisman-Trophy winning quarterback couldn't compete with Michigan's Chad Henne, who passed for 373 yards.
Michigan's offense generated well over 500 yards and held Florida to more than 100 less. It was a pretty sight.
-30-
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Underlying Visions
For the first time in a while, I got to show a visitor my city Sunday afternoon. Accompanied by not one, but two, lovely Japanese citizens, I drove through the city's neighborhoods, from the financial district downtown, past Chinatown and through North Beach, the wharf to Fort Mason.
After lunch at Greens, our tour continued through the Marina Green, Chrissy Field, and down to ancient Fort Point, underneath the Golden Gate Bridge.
This is one of favorite spots in San Francisco, where the sounds and smells of the Bay surrounded us on a cold, sunny day. It is easy to imagine the life of the Civil War soldiers stationed here among these drafty old brick walls, with arches and stairways and lookout towers and cannons awaiting enemies who never arrived.
All the military bases in the immediate Bay Area have been returned to the cities and state of California governments, and they've been transformed into national parks, universities, or centers for NGOs.
Eventually, we made our way through the Presidio, and over to the Pacific Coast just by sundown, past Baker Beach, Seal Rock, Land's End, and the Cliff House, overlooking the wide expanse of ocean beach. Hundreds of people were still walking the beach at sunset.
Then, back through Presidio and Pacific Heights and Lincoln Park to the Richmond, along Clement Street with its Cantonese markets with signs in kanji script, which both my companions can discern meanings.
We then proceeded over to the Haight, and the Castro, Noe Valley, Dolores Park, 24th Street, the Mission, and the Valencia corridor, which its many used bookshops, restaurants, and salons.
Finally, down through the outer Mission and lower Potrero to China Basin, where a flurry of building activity harkens the arrival of UCSF's biotechnology complex spreading all the way from 16th Street on the bayfill to the Third Street Canal, and the Giants' stadium.
Through Mulimedia Gulch and South Park, past the former offices of Rolling Stone and the once-and-present office of Wired, we re-entered downtown at the financial district and drove our friend up to her boutique hotel near Union Square.
It was a nice way to survey the city on the last Sunday of the year. Meanwhile, as I write this, it is the last Monday of the year and in fact the last day of any kind for 2007.
With that in mind, may I wish each and every one of you a happy, healthy, joyous, sexy, funny, sustainable 2008! Happy New Year!
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