Elections=Math

One good thing about being among the long-term unemployed is I can study the election polls and do the math. Here, from a completely non-partisan perspective, is what I see as of this hour. This is not what I hope will happen but what, as of now, I believe will occur. This is completely subject to change. I will try to update these numbers tomorrow, on the eve of the election. As of now, here is what I see:

I've spent the past couple hours pouring over all the polling data I can find state by state in the 8 states that appear to still be in play. It is actually maddeningly close and therefore uncertain in most of these places, although I would say it is trending Obama in most of them (details below).

Before those 8, it looks like Obama is ahead in electoral votes, 237-206. The only way that number could change is if the five states that appear to be settled should pivot dramatically in the last 48 hours. Those five are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico (41), which would have to move away from Obama, or if North Caroline and Arizona (26) move away from Romney.

Looking at polling trends I am going to assume neither of those scenarios will occur.

So that leaves 8 races in play:

Florida (29) is leaning Romney but could go either way. Let's give it to Romney.
Ohio (18) is leaning Obama. I think he will win this state.
Virginia (13) is leaning Obama. I think he will win this state.
Wisconsin (10) is leaning Obama. Let's give it to Obama.
Colorado (9) is dead even. Let's give it to Romney.
Iowa (6) is leaning Obama. Let's give it to Romney.
Nevada (6) is leaning Obama. Let's give it Romney.
New Hampshire (4) is leaning Obama. Let's give it to Romney.

Final totals?

Obama 278 Romney 260.

I believe this is the best case scenario for Romney. A more likely outcome is 294-244, Obama.

I will redo this math tomorrow...

Love Conquers Hate

The kids didn't win any of their games but their parents were out there cheering the whole time.

In the process I may have lost my writing voice. We'll see.

Although by the numbers I've been predicting Obama will win on Tuesday, the truth is no one can say for sure how this election will turn out. It is very, very close.

Polls indicate the overwhelming number of people believe Obama has done a great job of handling the disaster relief for Hurricane Sandy, so that may provide him a slight edge.

But the difficulty of getting to the polls in hard-hit New Jersey and New York, Democratic strongholds, could well depress the popular vote on that side. It will have no impact on the electoral outcome.

***

This my 18-year-old's first election. It's difficult to talk with your kids about politics these days. They see all the ugliness, the hyperbole. They are smart, and have studied history.

They know about our legacy of racism in America. They know what socialism is. To see grown men and women call a moderate, centrist Democrat a "socialist" strikes them as ludicrous, and it forces them to lose all respect for the entire Republican Party as a result.

My father's party is thus losing our brightest and most perceptive youth, They also are suspicious that all of this baseless rhetoric has at its core a racist tinge. There is no policy or political reason for any white voter to "hate" Obama, nor is there anything about his mixed racial heritage to justify those venomous emotions.

In other words, if you hate Obama, you do so not rationally, but out of an ugly place within yourself that you ought to be able to address through your religion, or through therapy, or through plain emotional honesty.

There simply is no rational basis for that kind of hate.

Do Democrats hate Romney?

Not really. Why should they? You don't hear that kind of ugly venom from the center or the left, only from the right.

That's why the right wing remains a small but dangerous pocket of extremism in this country. Don't forget where the worst domestic terror attack originated -- at Oklahoma City by a right wing extremist from Michigan.

Hate is the worst thing in public life. At its core is unresolved racism.

There's plenty at stake in this election, although a much higher stake globally sits in the government change imminent in China.

***

Way to the east of here and back today I drove one of my son's teammates. He is also a center back; they played side by side and were brilliant as first time teammates.

The boy's name is Juan and he is built like a fire hydrant. He told me in broken but pretty good English that he grew up in Honduras and moved here six years ago. He only started learning English then.

He said he chose his high school over others because he wanted to learn how to be around other people than just Latinos.

He said he likes it here in San Francisco, and he likes getting to know white, black and Asian kids.

Despite his formidable physical bearing, which translates into an intimidating force on the pitch, he is a sweet kid, and he reminded me why America is a great country.

Not because of the Timothy McVeighs but because of the Juans.

Love will conquer hate eventually; I believe that. And hopefully Obama will be re-elected on Tuesday because all of our people, even the haters, need that.

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Election Turning Point

Three prominent Republican leaders endorsed or essentially endorsed Obama over Romney this week:

Colin Powell.

Michael Bloomberg.

Chris Christie.

Over my many decades of following and reporting on Presidential elections, I do not recall anything of this magnitude ever happening before.

All three clearly see that Obama represents our future and Romney is nothing more than a (dangerous) relic of our past.

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Obama Will Be Re-Elected

After reviewing all the polls, as I always do each election cycle, this is the best estimate of the outcome next week.

Of course, things could still change. But, from a statistical perspective, I doubt it.

The real question facing this country now is not who will win the election, because that will be the incumbent President, but what he will do with that second term.

It's soon time to put aside all of the partisan politics, the heated rhetoric, and begin to rebuild America.

Let's hope President Obama is up to that challenge.

Once he wins this election, which will happen mid-evening next Tuesday, that work will be his burden to bear.

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The Meaning of Champions

Wow, for some reason, according to Google Analytics, my last post got 240 visitors. This is weird, because as a blogger I am so far off the grid that you have to know about me to find me. I long ago had to shut off any access by Google or any other search engine, after a supposed friend clicked too many times on my site and got me disqualified for Google Ad income, thus permanently consigning me to the free blogger category.

Thanks a lot, supposed friend, although I know you did it with the best of intentions.

Of course, Google and its algorithms cares not for the best of intentions.

Today, the very special city of San Francisco celebrated its second World Series Championship in three years. If you have not seen the parade and the speeches, maybe you should, especially if you do not live around here.

Because everyone who spoke, and everyone who contributed to this championship, gets it. They all know that the only way any of us can accomplish anything meaningful in this world is if we work together.

Teamwork.

Soon, we have an election. That is far more important than baseball, obviously.

I am saddened and appalled to have relatives and friends who support Mitt Romney for President at this point. If you are reading these words, I am very disappointed that you would betray your own best interests, not to mention those of your children and grandchildren, to vote for a man who does not even admit that global climate change will affect the future of the human race, because he is so politically manipulative that he will say or do anything to gain power.

Romney at this moment is the most dangerous man in America. He is the champion of ignorance. I may not much like or support Obama but he is a hell of a better choice for President than a billionaire member of a religious cult who could care less about any of us who are struggling just to survive.

There you go. If 240 people read this one, and take in my message, whether you agree with me or not, that's a good thing for the future of this country! On Tuesday please vote your heart and mind.

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World Champion City

Fireworks, cheers, horns honking. Helicopters overhead, crowds gather on the corners with banners and flags.

For the second time in three years, the Giants are the World Series Champions!

It couldn't happen to a better city.

Nevertheless, I feel bad for my childhood heroes, the Tigers, who were swept in four straight games by the Giants.

My teen boys were watching with me tonight, my oldest son and daughters were all in touch by phone and text. From five different locations, the seven of us celebrated the moment together...

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I hope it is fine

As this particular night turns into tomorrow's morning, my youngest child will officially turn fourteen years of age, a bit before the sun comes back up. That is a difficult fact for me to accept, since in my eyes she is still a little girl.

I also remember being 14 myself, as clearly as if it were yesterday. But my world then was so different from hers today that it would be difficult to find any parallels between my life and hers, so I feel as if I have no wisdom to share with her about this threshold.

We had a family party tonight at her favorite Chinese restaurant. Tomorrow, after her soccer game, she will have a sleepover party at her Mom's house with friends.

Happy birthday, baby!

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