Financial Aid Forms

Out on a rainy Sunday to help my youngest as she filled out her FAFSA form. Unlike her brothers at this age, she does it herself, just asking for a bit of help. Her school counselor also got her going earlier in the week.

The proactive role she takes on applying to colleges impresses me. She is applying to at least 14 schools all over the country, including five here in California, though she disclaims any interest in those five.

She prefers the smaller private colleges at this point over large schools. That might or might not reflect the fact that the only schools she has attended -- Synergy, Oxbow and Gateway -- are all relatively small schools.

Her mother, who recently was laid off :( again, also thinks she should go to a small school. Part of me thinks she should experience a larger educational institution, but I will defer to my daughter's judgement.

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The Building Blowout

Studying the polls and the math, I'm convinced that if the election were held today, Clinton would win with some 330 electoral votes and probably close to 50 percent of the popular vote to about 42 percent for Trump.

It could easily get worse for Trump at this point. The multiple allegations of sexual misconduct against Trump are eroding his support among many sectors of the electorate, not just women. This kind of behavior offends many men as well.

The mainstream media -- CNN, Washington Post, New York Times -- have definitively turned against Trump, not so much out of a liberal bias but out of concern that he represents a dangerous authoritarian streak that threatens American democracy.

As always, the people will decide, not the media.

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Lunch and Tour

For the first time in ten years, Peter is back here living in San Francisco and today, after a job visit here in the Mission, he came by KQED and we had lunch. Then I gave him a tour of the office, where he met my staff members, saw television and radio control rooms, and got a sense of the energy in our newsroom.

What a wonderful thing to have my oldest son nearby again!

We also got a dusting of rain today, very welcome, with a promise of much more on the way...

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Mid-Week Get-Together

Left work mid-day and took my youngest to the Verizon store on Mission Street, where we have been going for years. She wanted a new phone, the iPhone 6 Plus, I believe.

Here she is with it.

We also had a nice long chat about school, applying for college, the election (the first one she can vote in!) and her upcoming birthday (18!).

It was one of the best visits we've had in a while.

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Unprecedented Chaos

The latest estimate by the most reliable statistical service has Clinton's chances of winning the election now at 82 percent, before any measurement of yesterday's abomination. My guess is that soon her chances will be measured at 85-90 percent by mid-week.

If Trump is not done, I'll be more surprised than I've ever been in any election cycle.

Today it is clear that many Republicans are abandoning Trump. That could soon surge into a landslide. At that point, Trump should just wuit.

His quest is over.

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Turning Point in Election

Having covered so many Presidential campaigns, I'm reluctant to make a prediction a month out. But the video released today of Trump claiming in 2005 that he could essentially sexually assault women because he was a "star" is so sickening that I strongly suspect he will not win the election on November 8.

This conversation he was having with another man is not only disgusting, it is disqualifying. We'll see what happens over the next week, including at Sunday night's debate. The polls have stayed pretty close -- Clinton is probably up ~5 points nationally and leading in most of the contested states, the swing states.

I'll revisit whether I can make a projection by Monday or so.

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Brunch Today

With Dylan and Peter and Julia and Claire, a wonderful get-together. We had a slight rain today as well. The Giants made the playoffs. All is well.