Trump's Election Threats

Many of those watching and listening to Trump closely believe he will try to subvert this November’s midterm elections.

As polls stand as of today, the Democrats seem likely to win control of the House, which would likely lead to Trump’s third impeachment. Democrats have a fighting chance at winning the Senate, which would paralyze Trump’s legislative agenda and make him a true lame duck.

So what would he do in response? Jeffrey Tobin has written an essay in the Times outlining Trump’s options:

• If the Democrats win a majority in the House, the president could declare that the election was fraudulent and that the winners should not be certified.

• The House of Representatives ceases to exist at noon on Jan. 3 following each election. After that moment, none of its 435 members remain in office unless and until they are sworn in again.

• This is why any delay tactics, like those conceived by President Trump’s lawyers in the 2020 election, could have a particularly bad outcome for the House. Trump could maneuver to keep it out of session indefinitely. 

• “No one knows what would happen,” Brian Kalt, a law professor at Michigan State and an authority on House procedures, told Tobin. “You could have votes on who gets to vote. That would be a huge mess. It would get very ugly.”

There are a lot of technical details in Tobin’s piece about how this could happen, but the good news is this assessment from one of Tobin’s main sources, Rep. Joe Morelle (D-NY): “The American people, I think, are not going to just sit by while an election which has given a Democratic majority of the House is taken away by some subterfuge that involves a removal of the sitting clerk and an acting clerk put in his place, who happens to be an election denier.”

Let’s hope for our democracy’s sake that he’s right about that.

HEADLINES:

• What’s the Worst Thing Trump Can Do in the Midterms? (NYT)

• Trump asks Supreme Court to let him curtail mail voting (CNN)

• Many people trapped inside Japanese shopping centre after earthquake, fire service says (BBC)

• U.S. and Iran pause fighting, Trump dismisses concerns of dwindling stockpiles (CNBC)

• Trump says US and Tehran having ‘good talks’ as drones hit Iran’s neighbours (Reuters)

• UN human rights chief says Israel must end occupation and house demolitions in Lebanon (AP)

• New Heat Wave Could Worsen France and Spain’s ‘Unprecedented’ Fire Season (NYT)

• What is a ‘fire cloud’, and how have they worsened wildfires in Europe? (Guardian)

• White House report accuses Smithsonian museum of ‘extreme political activism’ (WP)

• McConnell Extends Senate Leave, Will Miss State Picnic (NYT)

• Trump Poll Collapse Hits New Milestone as Leaks Reveal Fresh GOP Panic (TNR)

• Employers Fear Labor Shortage as Many Immigrants Lose Protected Status (NYT)

• After being targeted by President Donald Trump during the rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Dinner, CNN’s Kaitlan Collins appeared to address his insults with a subtle social media post. [HuffPost]

• Gordie Howe’s family are the 1st to cross the bridge (CBC)

• For small farmers, goats are becoming big business (WP)

• 15-year-old shot into Seattle food festival crowd during deadly gunfight, prosecutors allege (NBC)

• Man Convicted in Idaho College Killings Seeks to Take Back Guilty Plea (NYT)

• Project Pilot: Can AI control a drone? (Anthropic)

• Profits Soar As Taylor Farms Rebrands As Biological Weapons Manufacturer (Onion)