Friday, October 30, 2026

Home Stretch

“Polls are not perfect predictions of outcomes.” — Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll

Over half the people voting in this year’s elections will have cast their ballots by Election Day, which is next Tuesday.

We’ve now enter the Twilight Zone phase of an election when the polls no longer have much impact (it’s too late) and the prediction markets are pretty much set in place, with some notable exceptions. Kalshi has the Democrats’s chances in the House at 92 percent and in the Senate at 69 percent.

Among major races the odds have flipped in one. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass now has a 60 percent chance of retaining her job over challenger Nithya Raman (40 percent). Raman had been leading in the betting until recently.

In the contentious Ohio Governor’s race, the Democrat Amy Acton is given a commanding chance (80 percent) to beat the GOP’s Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy has finally taken down his offensive ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar. That's him raising the white flag.

In another controversial contest, Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola is given a 68 percent chance over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. The “other” Dan Sullivan in this race is given no chance to prevail. It looks like Trump's plan is to try and prevent her from claiming her seat in the Senate.

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The degree to which you give credence to any of these numbers is probably consistent with whether you believe in the “wisdom of the crowds” hypothesis.

I do, which is why I am citing the predictions this time around. Oh yeah, one last datapoint. It looks like Trump is abandoning the campaign trail at the end. He has cancelled visits to Kansas and Iowa.

HEADLINES:

  • Our forecast of the midterms’ outcome (Economist)

  • A Guide to the 2026 Midterms (New Yorker)

  • US midterms: 4 days to go – What the polls say as Trump cancels two rallies (Al Jazeera)

  • Alaska governor orders investigation into Democrat Mary Peltola’s Senate campaign (Guardian)

  • Senate braces for nasty fight over seating Peltola after Alaska Senate race (The Hill)

  • Live Midterm Election Updates: Trump campaigns in South Carolina for Darline Graham and more from the trail (CBS)

  • Judge rejects Justice Department bid to set aside California ballots (WP)

  • Justice Dept. Pressures California With Expanded Election Investigation (NYT)

  • Republicans Tried to Undercut Black Voters. It’s Blowing Up in Their Faces. (Bulwark)

  • Trump fired him. The ‘DEI Watchlist’ shamed him. Then came 500 job rejections. (WP)

  • Ilhan Omar Investigation Involves New Scrutiny of Long-Disputed Marriage (NYT)

  • The Four Academics Who Dreamed Up California’s Billionaire Tax (WSJ)

  • Marked Down: Trump’s trick or treat (Money Trail)

  • Hegseth’s team forces out another top Pentagon general, officials say (WP)

  • In Her Final Months, Dolores Huerta Was Lauded for Revealing a Deep Secret (NYT)

  • Netanyahu falls short of majority as Israel faces three possible paths to a new government (Fox)

  • Israel’s Parties Gird for Wrangling to Form a Government, With No Clear Path (NYT)

  • What we know of Vance’s letter to Rezaei, as Trump warns Gulf to ‘prepare’ (Al Jazeera)

  • US warns allies to prepare for possible Iran strikes, retaliation after elections (AP)

  • The strange math that shows how Trump got Venezuela to ‘gift’ oil to the United States (CNN)

  • Record number of purges as Xi emphasises ‘party discipline’ at China political gathering (BBC)

  • French Protests Are Hijacked by Agitators (Nation)

  • Experts warn of wider spread as Ebola outbreak reaches plateau (AP)

  • Return of the poppy — Taliban’s poppy ban falters as Afghan farmers say they can’t feed their children (Reuters)

  • ‘The Diplomat’ Renewed for Season 5 at Netflix (Variety)

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