One week before Election Day, roughly a third of the likely voters have already cast their ballots. The gamblers at Kalshi continue to give Democrats a 64 percent chance of winning control of the Senate.
In three key races, they believe Democrats will prevail -- Talarico will beat Paxton in Texas (65-35); Jackson will beat Collins in Maine (60-40); and El-Sayed will beat Rogers in Michigan (68-32). These are the odds, not the expected margin of victory.
The polls indicate very close races nearly within the margin of error.
I don’t think anyone believes the Republicans can hold on to the House; Hakeem Jeffries will be the next Speaker.
Just 29 percent think now Trump will declare some sort of election emergency if Democrats win control of Congress. The good news is that 71 percent think he won’t.
This one time let’s hope the gamblers are right on all counts.
HEADLINES:
Appeals Court Declines to Intervene in California Ballot Lawsuit. By a 2-1 vote, a federal appeals court panel denied the Trump administration’s request that it immediately order the state to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots. (NYT)
U.K. charges 2 men arrested over alleged Iran-linked terror plot against RAF Fairford air base used by U.S. (CBS)
Bolsonaro’s party accepts Brazil election after Trump calls vote ‘rigged’ (Al Jazeera)
Trump DOJ unlawfully fired Epstein prosecutor Maurene Comey, judge rules (CNBC)
Justice Dept. Brings More Charges Against James Comey, Accusing Him of Leaks (NYT)
The anti-Bibi candidate who has Netanyahu on his heels (Axios)
Netanyahu Pushed for Attack on Iran Ahead of Israeli Election, Officials Say (NYT)
America’s Least Bad Option in Iran (Foreign Policy)
Celebrations in Serbia after veteran ruler Vučić loses election to student-led protest movement (BBC)
Did Substack Fix the Internet? (New Yorker)
U.S. Allies Race to Escape SpaceX’s Orbit (WSJ)
French student protesters say government offered them deal, but they want more (Reuters)
Drone warfare could save NATO (The Hill)
White House is sued again over media bans as press groups seek wider injunction (WP)
Vivek Ramaswamy’s Ohio gov bid in chaos as allies and venues drop him over Acton attack ad (Independent)
Troubled By Trump’s Immigrant Round-Ups, Will Hispanic Evangelicals, Vote Republican, Democrat or Stay Home? (SmirkingChimp)
The sleeper issue that could decide the U.S. Senate race in Texas (WP)
The time has come for ‘Medicare for All’ (Money Trail)
Berkeley Considers Starting a Public Bank With Taxpayer Dollars (NYT)
A former beauty pageant contestant who has said she rebuffed a sexual advance from Trump in 1993 now says Trump raped her during the encounter, according to a report from the House Democrats who will take the lead on any potential impeachment of Trump next year. [HuffPost]
A wild winter is brewing. Here’s what meteorologists want you to know. (WP)
AI NEWS:
The markets are starting to act seriously weird. Blame AI (CNN)
Anthropic begins countdown to IPO with prospectus filing (FT)
The AI boom is nearly $5 trillion short of paying for itself, Gartner says (Fortune)
CoreWeave, AI landlord stocks sink to lowest levels in more than a year as the price of insuring CoreWeave's debt doubles (Yahoo)
12 AI models were asked what they really think about humans — and almost all agreed on one uncomfortable truth (Tom’s Guide)
Anthropic files for potentially the biggest IPO ever as CEO warns of risk to humanity from AI (AP)
Here’s how insanely rich Anthropic’s IPO is about to make its 7 cofounders (BI)
US political candidates tailor messages for AI models used by voters. (Reuters)
It took just 12 hours for an AI start-up founded by ex-DOGE staffers to break into Anthropic (WP)
Microsoft offers a quarter of its global workforce voluntary buyouts as AI spending accelerates (AP)
Election Officials Warn That Ballots Tied To Stray Cat Unlikely To Arrive In Time (Onion)
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