Obama-mania!

It's way too small a sample to be scientific, but among the dozen or so Californians I've spoken with this past week about next Tuesday's Democratic Primary, there appears to be a new trend favoring Sen. Barack Obama. We have six parties as well as a non-partisan ("decline to state") option in this state. Only registered Repub1icans can vote in the GOP primary, but Independents (who account for about 19% of the state's voters) can vote in the Democratic primary.

(Dem's outnumber Rep's here by roughly 43-36%, and the minor parties account for the other ~2% of the electorate.) Independents lean Democratic by a rough margin of 4-3, though a solid third don't support either party.

In fact, California Independents are not only famously unpredictable, crossing party lines at will, they also are the fastest-growing segment of the state's electorate. They vote for candidates above parties. Accordingly, John McCain and Barack Obama should do very well here. But since Independents cannot cast ballots in the GOP race, Obama figures to harvest a larger share of these critical swing voters.

It's a weird state, electorally speaking, with a moderate Republican as its Gubernator, and three liberal women as its two Senators and the Speaker of the House. Voters skew slightly more to conservative than moderate and slightly more moderate than liberal -- the smallest of the three large blocs of voters by ideology.

The coast is liberal and Blue; the interior is conservative and Red. The fastest-growing parts of the state are developing communities between the Blue Coast and the Red Valley in Purple Land. Here, independents hold sway, and anything can happen.

In this context, back to my informal, unscientific survey... My sample includes Independents, Republicans, Democrats, and Greens -- reflecting my overall distribution of my friends rather accurately. They were mainly breaking for Clinton or Edwards until recently, but one by one they seem to be moving into Obama's camp in the final days leading up to Super Tuesday.

The anti-Clinton sentiment among these folks, especially since the bitter South Carolina primary, is palpable. One man told me he hates Clinton so much he will vote Republican (for McCain) if she is the nominee. Many of the others liked Edwards because of his anti-corporate, anti-poverty stands, but they are dropping away from him as unelectable.

The only people I know who remain in Clinton's camp are some women voters, who are remaining loyal to the gender politics that is fueling her run. But, I no longer know any men or Independents who favor her over Obama, which was not at all the case a year ago.

Her support is eroding quickly among young voters, who are predominantly Non-Partisan. Although she controls an impressive state organization, all of the passion on the ground is swinging to Obama. (McCain, too, seems to increasingly appeal to Californians, especially men, older people, Latinos, and conservatives, and Independents.)

The most recent polls I've seen still imply that Clinton has a big lead over Obama, who does not have much name recognition among minorities here. But California as much as any state in the country is evolving into a diverse, multicultural society with global connections and aspirations.

In this context, my friend, the talented editor Mark MacNamara, has posted fascinating collections of stories about how the rest of the world views Obama's candidacy. (Click on the title of this post to view it.) There seems to be a growing impression overseas that Obama could potentially transform the U.S. image (currently at all-time lows) into one significantly more positive than any of the other candidates.

Considering all these factors, trends, and data points, I'm ready to risk my perfect record to date and issue the following prediction: Obama will win this state a week from today. Get ready for it.

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