Obama surging in latest poll

According to the authoritative Rasmussen telephone poll in California, Barack Obama had closed to within three points of Hillary Clinton by mid-week, before John Edwards dropped out of the race.

This was announced amid growing indications that and Obama wave may be sweeping the Golden State. We'll delve into more numbers once we have gathered and analyzed them. Other polls indicate that Edwards' former supporters will break more in Obama's favor than Clinton's.

There is as yet no indication that Edwards will endorse either rival.

The same Rasmussen poll indicates that John McCain holds a narrow four point lead over Mitt Romney in California, but this is before the important endorsements from Rudy Giuliani and the Arnold the Gubernator boosted McCain over the past two days.

Two other GOP candidates, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, remain in the race but are unlikely to garner the minimum support necessary to harvest delegates in many places next Super Tuesday. My guess is each will do well in pockets here in California -- Huckabee with Christian Conservatives and Paul with Silicon Valley Libertarians.

Neither group is large or influential enough to influence the outcome, however. It appears to be McCain's race to lose -- nationally -- and he is acting like he knows it.

As the field narrows, pay attention to how the major party candidates would do head to head. Those who have been counting on a Democratic victory in November may be disturbed, again relying on Rasmussen, that McCain beats Clinton by eight points. Obama supports can be somewhat more optimistic, given that McCain's lead over Obama is smaller -- six points.

Of course, all of these numbers are fungible and subject to a margin of error that makes all veteran political junkies urge caution. Since I've staked out a position and made a prediction in the California primary race, I'll be examining the numbers and trends more closely than some.

Stay tuned for additional analyses leading up to Super Tuesday.

Thanks to my friend Daniel Kreiss for the tip that led to this post.